Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 16:33:53 06/16/99
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On June 16, 1999 at 19:05:29, KarinsDad wrote: >On June 16, 1999 at 18:44:25, Dann Corbit wrote: > >[snip] >>Let's just call it "Markov Process Variations." >>That way it will sound a lot more scientific and important. >>It is often the case that when people say "luck" what they really mean is that >>there is an element of probability involved. Personally, I don't believe in >>luck, but I do believe in probability. > >Good plan. > >I believe in luck in random circumstances such as a large meteor striking the >atmosphere and it is big enough so that a marble sized fragment hits the ground >500 feet away from me. Boy, was I lucky that it did not strike closer. It is an >extremely improbable event in the first place, but there is no normal way to >determine when and where it could happen, hence if you have a close call, you >are lucky that the improbable event did not occur (or if it does occur, you are >unlucky). > >But in computer chess (for the most part), things are deterministic at a >micro-level. Otherwise, you could not play the same variation against a computer >program and identically repeat a game (I am sure that some programmers attempt >to make their programs non-deterministic in some ways). Things are not >deterministic at a macro-level (i.e. you do not control who you will play and in >which round, etc.), but although the macro level affects the outcome of the >tournament, it does not prevent a strong program from defeating all comers. So, >I do not believe in luck as such in a computer chess tournament. Random fluxuations occur in *all* physical objects. I can run the same position on the same machine with the same program and the same settings and get two different answers. I have yet to see anything that is truly deterministic. I guess I've got a bit of Bayesian blood in me.
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