Author: blass uri
Date: 17:15:04 06/21/99
Go up one level in this thread
On June 21, 1999 at 09:45:43, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On June 21, 1999 at 02:59:33, Ingo Althofer wrote: > >>On June 20, 1999 at 22:44:34, Robert Hyatt wrote: >> >> >>>note that their tiebreak was 1.0 points different. Note that shredder was >>>seeded very low (incorrectly) which paired it against a good opponent in >>>round 1, >> >>That is wrong. Shredder was seeded to low, but in round 1 it got Neurologic >>which made altogether 1.0 points in the whole tournament. So without round 1 >>Shredders lead in Buchholz would have been even higher. >> > >Sorry.... I omitted (or deleted) one line: "consider the following possibility >when seedings are wrong": > >and then the above still stands. IE a 1 point difference in tie-break is not >significant after 7 rounds. And the initial seedings _can_ affect the final >standing when the difference is only 1 point... > >I didn't look at the final standings, not wanting to try to decipher who >benefited and who didn't, from initial seeding errors. The main place >where sum-of-opponent's scores work nicely is with reasonably accurate >seedings, in a small number of rounds, where one player does the 'swiss gambit' >and loses in round one and then wins the remaining games and ties with someone >that lost in a late round. The 'gambiteer' should have a lower tiebreak. In >fact, round-by-round scores are often used to break ties also, as this also >accomplishes the same thing... > >Someone ought to analyze statistically what the probability is that ifyou >have a sum-of-opponent's score that is 1 higher than someone else that is >tied for first after 8 rounds (counting the playoff draw) what is the >statistical probability that that program is actually the best. IE maybe the >FIDE approach makes sense if more long games can't be added... maybe another >faster game would be better? I think that faster games could help Ferret because I read that the tester of shredder said that long time control help shredder more than the opponents. He said that shredder got 65% against CM6K,72% against hiarcs7 75% against nimzo2000 and 52% against Junior5 in his tests at game\30 and that longer time control only help shredder to have better results. Uri
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