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Subject: Re: Winning Chances vs Material/Positional Evaluation

Author: Chris Carson

Date: 07:34:04 07/29/99

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On July 29, 1999 at 10:28:37, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>On July 29, 1999 at 10:23:58, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>>On July 29, 1999 at 09:46:58, Chris Carson wrote:
>>
>>>On July 29, 1999 at 09:29:32, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>
>>>>On July 29, 1999 at 08:25:58, Chris Carson wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On July 29, 1999 at 07:16:32, Amir Ban wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On July 28, 1999 at 18:16:24, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On July 28, 1999 at 17:50:51, Kristo Miettinen wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>The position is the opening array, all pieces in their initial positions. The
>>>>>>>>explanation about the eight pawns makes sense, intending to steer Crafty into
>>>>>>>>open waters (on the assumption that the opponent is human?)
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>I was looking into this on a whim, as I use the advantage of White in the
>>>>>>>>opening position as my quantum of positional value (on which scale the value of
>>>>>>>>a pawn is 6 quanta for me).
>>>>>>>Here is the C.A.P. record for that position.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>rnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPPPPPPP/RNBQKBNR w KQkq - acd 15; ce -7; pv e4 e6 Nf3
>>>>>>>Bb4 Nc3 Ne7 Bc4 Nbc6 O-O O-O d4 Bxc3 bxc3 Na5 Bb5; pm e4; id "C.A.P. 4028";
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>I bet you never knew crafty was French.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Crafty thinks it is behind by 7 one hundredths of a pawn.  This is obviously
>>>>>>>conservative because white has a tempo at least.  But I don't think that it is
>>>>>>>grossly inaccurate.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>A correct evaluation is one that matches the winning percentages of the
>>>>>>position. I think white has about 54% in serious play, and if so the evaluation
>>>>>>should be about +0.20.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Amir
>>>>>
>>>>>Amir,
>>>>>
>>>>>Interesting point.  If I read you correctly, the "Evaluation" should match
>>>>>the winning changes.  This is not the way most programs "Evaluate" a position.
>>>>>Granted that a higher "Eval" by a program should mean a higher "Chance" to
>>>>>win, it is normally not a "Percentage" based on results.
>>>>>
>>>>>I have thought that this might be a better method of "Evaluation", some
>>>>>programs do use a "Percentage" (Crafty) for opening book moves, but not
>>>>>for middle game or end game positions.
>>>>>
>>>>>Any thoughts on how to incorporate "Percentage" into the "Evaluate" function
>>>>>of a program (knowledge)?  Perhaps a "Percentage" "Evaluation" for positions
>>>>>and endgames as a part of the learning (Crafty might be able to do this)
>>>>>would be useful.  Any comments?
>>>>>
>>>>>Best Regards,
>>>>>Chris Carson
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>I disagree.  Evaluations are not 'absolute' any more than FIDE Elo ratings are
>>>>absolute.  The correct evaluation is the one that lets you _win_ 54% (or better)
>>>>of the games from the opening position.  Whether the starting score is +1.00 or
>>>>-1.00 is immaterial so long as you choose the best move(s) by using those
>>>>scores...
>>>
>>>I agree with you, this makes the evaluation relative to the program/version
>>>that is doing the evaluation, thus a +0.3 may have a different meaning
>>>for program x than for program y, but is irrelevant as long as the
>>>best move is choosen by the program using the score.
>>>
>>>Best Regards,
>>>Chris Carson
>>
>>
>>right.. ie a good eval could produce -1, 0 and 1 and play using those scores
>>just so they are right.  That program could also use -1001, -1000, and -999
>>and produce the same result...
>
>I should have added that I have seen _many_ positions where two GMs can't agree
>on which side is better, but _both_ agree on the best move.  So even humans have
>this 'issue'.
>
>It would be nice if all programs agreed on what +.20 means, but that is _very_
>unlikely.  And is the reason that in computer chess games, frequently _both_
>programs will think they are better, or they will both think they are worse.
>
>As Einstein said, "everything is relative, my friend"
>
>:)

Well said.  :)

Best Regards,
Chris Carson



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