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Subject: Re: Winning Chances vs Material/Positional Evaluation

Author: Andrew Williams

Date: 00:33:13 07/31/99

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On July 31, 1999 at 00:06:29, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>On July 30, 1999 at 19:33:37, Andrew Williams wrote:
>
>>On July 29, 1999 at 23:33:08, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>
>>>On July 29, 1999 at 19:44:55, Amir Ban wrote:
>>>
>>>>On July 29, 1999 at 09:29:32, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On July 29, 1999 at 08:25:58, Chris Carson wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>On July 29, 1999 at 07:16:32, Amir Ban wrote:
>>>>>>
>>>>>>>On July 28, 1999 at 18:16:24, Dann Corbit wrote:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>On July 28, 1999 at 17:50:51, Kristo Miettinen wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>The position is the opening array, all pieces in their initial positions. The
>>>>>>>>>explanation about the eight pawns makes sense, intending to steer Crafty into
>>>>>>>>>open waters (on the assumption that the opponent is human?)
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>I was looking into this on a whim, as I use the advantage of White in the
>>>>>>>>>opening position as my quantum of positional value (on which scale the value of
>>>>>>>>>a pawn is 6 quanta for me).
>>>>>>>>Here is the C.A.P. record for that position.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>rnbqkbnr/pppppppp/8/8/8/8/PPPPPPPP/RNBQKBNR w KQkq - acd 15; ce -7; pv e4 e6 Nf3
>>>>>>>>Bb4 Nc3 Ne7 Bc4 Nbc6 O-O O-O d4 Bxc3 bxc3 Na5 Bb5; pm e4; id "C.A.P. 4028";
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>I bet you never knew crafty was French.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>Crafty thinks it is behind by 7 one hundredths of a pawn.  This is obviously
>>>>>>>>conservative because white has a tempo at least.  But I don't think that it is
>>>>>>>>grossly inaccurate.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>A correct evaluation is one that matches the winning percentages of the
>>>>>>>position. I think white has about 54% in serious play, and if so the evaluation
>>>>>>>should be about +0.20.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>Amir
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Amir,
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Interesting point.  If I read you correctly, the "Evaluation" should match
>>>>>>the winning changes.  This is not the way most programs "Evaluate" a position.
>>>>>>Granted that a higher "Eval" by a program should mean a higher "Chance" to
>>>>>>win, it is normally not a "Percentage" based on results.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>I have thought that this might be a better method of "Evaluation", some
>>>>>>programs do use a "Percentage" (Crafty) for opening book moves, but not
>>>>>>for middle game or end game positions.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Any thoughts on how to incorporate "Percentage" into the "Evaluate" function
>>>>>>of a program (knowledge)?  Perhaps a "Percentage" "Evaluation" for positions
>>>>>>and endgames as a part of the learning (Crafty might be able to do this)
>>>>>>would be useful.  Any comments?
>>>>>>
>>>>>>Best Regards,
>>>>>>Chris Carson
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>I disagree.  Evaluations are not 'absolute' any more than FIDE Elo ratings are
>>>>>absolute.  The correct evaluation is the one that lets you _win_ 54% (or better)
>>>>>of the games from the opening position.  Whether the starting score is +1.00 or
>>>>>-1.00 is immaterial so long as you choose the best move(s) by using those
>>>>>scores...
>>>>
>>>>This is to answer several posts in reply to my original comment:
>>>>
>>>>Evaluations need to represent winning chances in some way, or else there's not
>>>>much use for them. It's true that the object of all this is to play good moves,
>>>>but to say that is to beg the question of how to evaluate positions so as to
>>>>play good moves.
>>>>
>>>>There are many ways to do this mapping. Obviously you can multiply the eval by a
>>>>factor to choose your scale, and you can also add a constant without changing
>>>>much, but an additive constant is suspect if you define a 0 evaluation to be
>>>>equivalent to a draw or 50% outcome. As long as your mapping is monotone in
>>>>winning chances, and your draw score is calibrated correctly, it's good.
>>>>
>>>>Practically, almost everyone agrees on scale by calling a pawn advantage about
>>>>1.00 (on average). Assuming some smooth mapping (there are exponentials that are
>>>>natural to use), to say that 54% maps to +0.20 is not so arbitrary as some
>>>>commented, though if someone insists it's +0.15 or +0.30, I won't argue. A minus
>>>>score, though, obviously doesn't fit because it has the wrong sign.
>>>>
>>>>The problem with having incorrect evaluations (not monotonic, or wrong sign) is
>>>>obvious with some thought: the program may prefer a bad position to a good
>>>>position (which always involves playing a bad move ...), or may accept a draw
>>>>when ahead.
>>>>
>>>>Our evaluations may be bad regardless, because our knowledge of the game is
>>>>incomplete, but there's no reason to accept a logical inconsistency in the
>>>>evaluation.
>>>>
>>>>When I talk about winning chances I'm not referring to any specific database
>>>>information that is available, but about an objective (and usually unknown)
>>>>outcome of the position.
>>>>
>>>>Amir
>>>
>>>
>>>I wouldn't begin to argue... but two points...
>>>
>>>(1) a minus score for white's first move can be considered bad...  in that we
>>>all agree that white has better winning chances than black.  So for those that
>>>want to take a program's 'evaluation' of a position as gospel, then - is
>>>confusing at best, and misleading at worst...
>>>
>>>(2) a minus score for white's first move can be reasonable, if a program has
>>>some asymmetry in the eval.  IE I use Belle's idea of '8 pawns is bad' and
>>>until one is exchanged, crafty gets a small penalty whether it is playing black
>>>or white.  And if white,  it is possible that it can find a PV where no pawn
>>>exchange occurs and yet it can't find a developmental/positional advantage to
>>>offset that 8-pawn penalty.
>>>
>>
>>I fear I am being dense here, but what is wrong with having 8 pawns?
>>
>>
>>>I do, on occasion, look at positional scores and ramp down or ramp up if I
>>>believe the number is 'out of line'.  But I am more interested in the move the
>>>eval leads it to play, because that is the critical issue in winning games...
>>>
>>>I think most programs are pretty naive positionally, mine included, and often
>>>see scores that make little sense.  For any program...
>>
>>
>>Andrew
>
>
>8 pawn (on one side) positions tend to get blocked.  trading one early at least
>gives an open file (or half-open) file to fight over.  I am seriously
>considering a 7 pawn penalty as well to try to trade at least two pawns.  But
>the risk is simplifying into more drawish positions rather than maintaining
>tension...
>
>The main idea is that computers excel at tactics, not closed positional
>stuff...

Thanks. Mine doesn't excel at either, so I'll not bother for the time being!


Andrew



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