Author: Tina Long
Date: 19:22:47 11/11/99
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On November 11, 1999 at 21:44:25, Eelco de Groot wrote: > >Couldn't find any fault with your reasoning, Tina. But what exactly is a "pareto >principal"? In normal newspeak? Show off that you are! Ok, I guess I had that >one coming. > >Eelco I woke up at 3:00am thinking "but I didn't explain Pareto". Then I went back to sleep. The Pareto Principal is that 80% of the task takes 20% of the effort, the last 20% of the task takes another 80% of effort. We Econometricians (Statistical Economists) use it to justify putting in little effort on tasks. (Ask me to graph the next 10 years interest rates & I'll give you a +or- 10% graph in 5 minutes, ask me to get it +or- 2% & get ready to wait). eg: writing a good chess program: Maybe after 100 hours planning & programming you have a working reasonable program. It takes a further 400 hours to get rid of bugs, perfect the gui, get it just right. eg: You look at a chess position. In 1 minute, in your mind, you know the best three moves & their likely reply, in 10 minutes the worth of your concentration has come up with only marginally better analysis. eg: Rebel knowledge, the first 100 is Rebel default contaning ALL the really important stuff, go to 200 pick up some worthwhile extra evaluation, go to 300 helps a little bit...... going from 400 to 500 may (& I'm not Ed, & I'm certainly not denigrating/insulting Ed) introduce very little extra "knowledge". hi guys
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