Author: Albert Silver
Date: 17:25:24 11/27/99
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On November 27, 1999 at 17:36:23, Bruce Moreland wrote: >On November 27, 1999 at 11:56:17, Jonathan Lee wrote: > >> Is there a web site that has conversion between ratings? >> There is: >> SSDF Swedish >> ELO Hungarian >> USCF United States >> FIDE International (and a lot more) >> Yes, the November 1999 chess computer List uses the Swedish rating method. >> Maybe percentiles (among humans and/or computers) could be the universal >>method also. >> It is safe bet you could use 99%, 99.1%, 99.2%, etc. >> Almost everything is two thousand something (2000+) for the latest computer >>list in which 3000 is 100 percent. >> There should be no philosophical differences on this one. >> I do have a conversion between USCF and FIDE in a rule book. >> Jonathan (14th message) > >There aren't enough games played between these programs and humans under >tournament conditions to generate a successful conversion. There is enough >trouble trying to convert ratings between the human scales. None of the top >SSDF programs have real FIDE or USCF ratings. > >They are very strong. Whether they are as strong as GM's or IM's or what is >open to contention. > >If they aren't as strong as typical GM's already, they are within a hardware >generation or two of being that strong. This doesn't mean that they will be >able to understand every position as well as a GM, it simply means that they'll >score 50% in tournament play on a computer that you can lift. > >In 1995 at the Hong Kong WCCC everyone was asked when they thought computers >would be as strong as the world champion. My pick was not published in the >ICCAJ, presumably since I was a nobody. My date was 2005, and I'm still >sticking to this four and a half years later. > >bruce I don't expect any company to try to repeat or improve on Deep Blue, although I'd love to be wrong, so I can only assume you believe a PC (or combination of)will be as good or better than the current Deep Blue in 5-6 years time. I find this hard to believe but who knows? If Hsu comes through with the commercialization of his DB chips, who can say? Barring that, I don't agree. Albert Silver
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