Computer Chess Club Archives


Search

Terms

Messages

Subject: Re: Rebel Shows GM strength once AGAIN(draws Baburin)

Author: Peter Kappler

Date: 10:51:48 12/07/99

Go up one level in this thread


On December 07, 1999 at 12:34:44, Peter Kappler wrote:

>On December 07, 1999 at 09:59:08, Charles Unruh wrote:
>
>>On December 06, 1999 at 20:46:10, Peter Kappler wrote:
>>
>>>On December 06, 1999 at 10:18:00, Charles Unruh wrote:
>>>
>>>>On December 05, 1999 at 18:44:57, James Robertson wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>On December 04, 1999 at 16:40:02, Charles Unruh wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>>How much does it take to show blind men that Comps are GM strength.  A program
>>>>>>beats a GM, draws several more, then beats lithuanian national team, Draws a
>>>>>>40/2 with Anand and there are people here who want to make out that it's hardly
>>>>>>USCF master strength!!!
>>>>>
>>>>>Rebel must be GM strength. How else could it lose to the Lithuanian National
>>>>>team, lose to Anand, lose to Rohde, lose to Hofman, and lose to who knows who
>>>>>else.
>>>>
>>>>Oh Kasparov lost to sokolov, that must mean he's no where near to 2830 right
>>>>>
>>>>>If we just count Rebel's victories it is unquestionable super grandmaster. If we
>>>>>count just its losses it is unquestionably 1500. Average them out, and you get
>>>>>IM.
>>>>
>>>>It would be one thing if these victories where all spaced out.  However for
>>>>rebel to get it's wins all in a short period of time decreases the odds. If a
>>>>Human were to draw ANAND, beat the lithuanian nat'l team, Beat sherbakov, almost
>>>>beat a 2593 Baburin, all in a few months there is no way that you would be
>>>>trying to make out that he wasn't GM strength.
>>>
>>>Why do you continue to only focus on the wins?  James is right, you must
>>>consider *all* results, not just the ones that support your viewpoint.
>>>
>>>
>>>  You can not find an IM in the
>>>>world that could produce the same sort of results in the same period of time!
>>>
>>>Sure you could -
>>
>>No you couldn't not against similar competition, in the same amount of time.
>>Sure an IM  could get a draw against Anand maybe 1 in a 100 games.
>
>This is completely wrong - you need to understand the ELO rating system before
>you make these kinds of statements.  Even at a 400 point rating differential,
>the lower rated player has a win expectancy of .091, meaning that a mere 2370
>player could expect to draw 2 games out of 10 against Anand.
>
>  The
>>likelyhood however that the draw that rebel got out of two games was that 1 in a
>>100 seems a bit slim.
>
>Indeed 1/100 would be slim, but as I explained above, the odds are *much* better
>than this...
>
>  What's even more amazing is that Just as Bertil Eklund
>>has said these are results in match play.  Rebel would be even stronger in a
>>swiss system even where all these opponents had not come prepared to play it in
>>specific.  I have it on no less an authority than Vagr (Vladamir Akopian GM)
>>that "Computer programs are at least low to mid-level Grandmaster strength."
>
>I'm not 100% certain that Rebel *isn't* playing at GM strength.  Frankly, I
>think there still haven't been enough games to know for certain.  Akopian's
>opinion is one I would value highly, but in the end, the only evidence that
>really matters is how Rebel performs in 40/2 games against strong humans.  So
>far it has achieved a performance rating of 2485, and that isn't quite GM
>strength.  (And certainly not high enough to earn a GM norm)
>
>
>>I'm sure that you have even seen Kaufman saying they were GM strength several
>>software and processor generations ago.  Even Robert HYATT back when we had a
>>mere Hiarcs 6 running on a p200 said then he thought they were 2450(AND IT IS IN
>>THE RECORD!).
>
>Sure, fine - that's Bob's opinion.  By the way, I think Bob tends to quote these
>numbers as USCF ratings, so you'd need to deduct ~75 points to translate that to
>a FIDE rating.  Again, I don't care about people's opinions.  We have lots of
>real results now, so lets focus on them.
>
>  Though strangely, even though, We have 1 gigahertz machines
>>commercially available, and  2 software generations later, he and people like
>>you don't want to admit that they've improved one point.  Comps are GM's have a
>>coke and a smile.
>>
>
>Maybe.  The difference seems to be that you are willing to accept this on faith,
>while I'd like to see more evidence...
>
>
>
>>in fact, I think somebody recently posted that Rebel's
>>>performance rating in the recent 40/2 games is around 2485.  This sounds like a
>>>solid IM level performance to me.
>>>
>>>>Do you know Anand has not drawn a player that was only IM strength in years!
>>>
>>>Ha!  Maybe because he almost never plays IMs!
>>He has played several though, and i wonder why they didn't just happen to get
>>that lucky one in a hundred draw hmmm?
>>
>
>You have this tendency to throw around "facts" rather loosely (see the 1/100
>silliness above).  Can you please post a list of the IMs that he has played
>recently?  If you can't post it, then please stop making this argument.  My
>guess is you'll only be able to find a very tiny sample of games, in which case
>the result is particularly meaningful.
>

Oops.  I meant to say "isn't particularly meaningful".

--Peter




This page took 0 seconds to execute

Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700

Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.