Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 12:25:24 12/17/99
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On December 17, 1999 at 02:54:31, Dave Gomboc wrote: [snip] >>>The normal distribution does not accurately predict the occurance of large >>>upsets. Elo himself discussed this in his book, which you can reference for >>>further details. >>Of course, for a single contest, it does not accurately predict anything. So >>what does he say about large upsets? More frequent that predicted? Less >>frequent? I don't have the book (does anyone know where to buy it from?) > >Upsets are more frequent than predicted when using a normal distribution. > >What I don't understand is why people don't take real tournament results and >figure out the correct distribution. Maybe they actually do... <shrug> That's interesting, because it supports the opposite of the assertion that lower rated players will never beat higher rated players if the difference is great. What is the stated reason for A.E.'s statements? Is it mathematical or empirical?
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