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Subject: Ratings inflation

Author: Albert Silver

Date: 06:51:15 12/25/99

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On December 24, 1999 at 20:34:28, Stephen A. Boak wrote:

>On December 24, 1999 at 15:39:47, Albert Silver wrote:
>
>>Ok, ok, ok. I'll explain. I was planning on it should someone just say: "Eh?
>>Please explain." I never expected this very long discussion on the matter. :-)
>>
>>The explanation is fairly simple. I play in tournaments in which many of the
>>players are rated over 2000 according to the ratings here in Brazil, but only a
>>minority of them have FIDE ratings. Players with FIDE ratings therefore have two
>>ratings, as is my case. Last year for example, I won the Championship of Rio de
>>Janeiro with a score of 5/6, yet I lost FIDE points because my only loss was
>>against the only FIDE rated player I confronted (although the 3rd highest
>>nationally rated player I faced in the event). So my TPR was calculated on a
>>score of 5/6, yet my FIDE rating was recalculated according to that one loss.
>>This didn't reflect at all my actual performance, which is why I also put very
>>little value on my FIDE rating. It goes up a few points, it goes down a few
>>points; I don't worry myself trying to figure what it's all about.
>>
>>                                       Albert Silver
>
>Ok ... you simply omitted a little fact--no big deal.  :)
>
>The TPR you referred to was composed of 6 games, 5 of which had *no* connection
>with your FIDE rating drop.  And we know you never expected to have to fully
>explain the situation.
>
>I won't call this misleading but you can expect I will scrutinize your future
>postings very carefully!

Well, Steve, I do apologize for driving you into that long debate. The point was
that ratings such as FIDE's are not as infallible as suggested, and not only due
to inflational effects because of new entrants. The example I gave was one, but
the opposite happens quite often as well. I.e. Someone has an absolutely
terrible tournament yet gains rating points due to the separate games played
against FIDE-rated players. The accelerating ratings inflation we are witnessing
is very much due to the provisional ratings system and the lowered bar to 2000.
If I have no FIDE rating, the only games that will count towards creating my
first "block" (term used here, not sure what it is in English) of 4-5 games, so
I needn't worry too much about my other games unless they may affect my pairings
with FIDE players. I understand perfectly the need for this as it can often be
difficult to play enough FIDE-rated players, but on the other hand you end up
grouping TPRs based on only 4 games for example, which is usually quite
inaccurate. As a result, the most common phenomenon observed is a person
entering the list with a brand new rating and seeing their excess points
redistributed in the pool: inflation. This used to only happen with players
achieving a rating of at least 2200, so the inflation was a much slower process.
Now with it lowered to 2000, the number of entrants has increased enormously,
and thus accelerated the inflation.

                                      Albert Silver

Merry Christmas to you too. :-)

>
>Merry Christmas!
>
>--Steve Boak



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