Author: Chris Carson
Date: 06:52:58 01/05/00
Go up one level in this thread
On January 05, 2000 at 09:35:39, Robert Hyatt wrote: <Big Snip> > >Not exactly, any more than if you flip a coin 10 times, you expect to get 5-5. >You might get 5-5 every now and then... but you will also get 6-4, and even >10-0 on rare occasions. In fact, if you _don't_ get 10-0, the coin is not >perfectly random. > >This is about statistics, which are not exact at all. > >I do believe that the Elo formula is being used wrongly on the chess servers, >as there are two components: the statistical analysis to predict outcomes, >and the "K" factor which controls how quickly your rating changes. K=32 is >a good value for the typical tournament player that may play a max of 100 games >a year. 32 is way too big for the typical server player that might play 100 >games in a day. I'd like to see a reduced K of 8 or so. Or else the Glicko >rating where K varies depending on how many games you play in a given period >of time... > I agree. :) Good example. :) <Big Snip> > >It was based on normal statistics, derived from the central limit theorem. IE >the math is correct. But just like the coin toss, nothing is exact about >_predicting_ an outcome... > Yes, even two errors of measure (to get 95% confidence) is not exact, expect 5 times out of 100 to be out side of expected (bad eggs). :) SSDF gives a SEM so a range can be determined, FIDE and PCA should do the same. Just my opinion. :) Best Regards, Chris Carson
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