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Subject: Re: Elo Rating System Funadamentally Flawed?

Author: blass uri

Date: 00:40:46 01/07/00

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On January 07, 2000 at 03:11:31, O. Veli wrote:

>On January 05, 2000 at 06:10:07, blass uri wrote:
>
>>3)The rating is also not perfect in predicting the playing strength of humans.
>>Suppose an 1600 player based on previous topurnaments train some years against
>>computers without playing in tournaments and after many years of training go
>>back to tournaments and gets performance of 2600 in 9 games(including draws and
>>wins against GM's).
>>
>>It is logical to assume that he deserves more than 2200 but
>>the rating  system is not going to give this player even 2000.
>
>  The rating system rates the last 80-100 games that you play. If 1600 was based
>on 9 games, then the above player would get 2100. If 1600 was based on 80 games,
>it would be much lower than 2100, and that is logical. S/he has to continue that
>performance for some time to show the real strength. If after the training, the
>player really becomes a 2600 player, then it would take a couple of tournaments
>(8-9) to show the real rating. On the other hand this performance could be a
>fluke, and the rating system considers this.

I considered the fact that the performance can be misleading so I said that the
guy deserves at least 2200.
I did not say that he deserves 2600 but I think that it is illogical to assume
that the performance in 9 games can be wrong in more than 400 elo.

a good rating system should give the best guess of the real strength of the
player based on the history.
In this case I think that the best guess should be more than 2200(maybe 2300).

My example is an extreme example and I know that it does not happen usually but
I wanted to prove that the rating system can be improved.

Uri




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