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Subject: Re: SSDF validation proposal

Author: Chris Carson

Date: 06:16:37 01/07/00

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On January 06, 2000 at 23:27:31, Robert Hyatt wrote:

< Big, perhaps relevant, Snip >
>
>Not exactly.  The ratings were adjusted to correlate with some human vs computer
>results that were known.  But that set the ratings for a couple of programs back
>in 1992-93.  Since that time, thousands of new games, computer vs computer were
>played.  And as I mentioned, a small change to a program can produce a wide
>gap in Elo performance.  With no checks and balances to keep the list in line
>with the old Swedish federation ratings.  The ratings were never calibrated to
>FIDE ratings, and after 7 years, there is little doubt that they have drifted
>over 200 points above FIDE, at least.
>
>At least I don't believe any program is a 2700 player, on today's hardware,
>which puts them in the top 10 or so of the worlds best players.  I don't >believe
>they are in the top 100 yet...

Bob,

Consider the following and let me know where my errors are,
I trust your insights.

Not an attack, just my own thoughts.  :)

--------------------------

I think the following two are in the top-50 (perhaps top-1).  :)

Deeper Blue (not commercial, but hardware does exist and is old
technology, very old by my standards, but I do work in the ASIC
industry).

Deep Blue jr  (same as above)

NOTE:  Neither has a GM norm or enough data to support this statement.
       But they do have some very high TPR's.  :)

       Deeper Blue has just one good TPR, might just as well produce one
       400 points lower.  Especially if a GM was allowed to study games
       and prepare for it.  :)

I also think the following program could easily be at 2600 TPR and
in the top-100 easily, but will not be allowed to gain a GM norm.

Crafty on a 16xPIII-800 (perhaps less MHZ needed).
TPR above 2600 no problem (in tournament play
where all GM's play each other and Crafty, no extra preparation advantage
to the GM's).  :)

Hmmm.  Would the above Crafty beat Cray Blitz?  :)

I also would not be surprised if Roman beat the above crafty on ICC
on a regular basis and if you calculated the rating for Crafty based
on just games from Roman, Crafty might be rated 200 to 400 points lower
than the TRP from a GM tournament.  Roman knows where the holes are
in Crafty and knows how to take advantage of them.  :)

Yes, I am mixing TPR and MPR.  TPR is all I have and may be all we
have.  I wish the situation was different, I prefer hard data to
analysis.  This is all just speculation.  I can never prove any
thing definitively since the computers are not allowed in tournaments.
Alghough, IMHO, small amounts of data support the above speculation.  :)

Just my humble opinion.  :)

Best Regards,
Chris Carson

< Big Snip>



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