Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 11:16:07 01/16/00
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On January 16, 2000 at 13:35:04, James B. Shearer wrote: >On January 16, 2000 at 10:27:18, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >>On January 16, 2000 at 02:17:21, James B. Shearer wrote: >> > <snip> > >>> Hsu's projections in the 1990 Scientific American article for the next >>>generation machine due in 1992 were 1000 chess chips, 3 million positions per >>>second per chip, 1 billion positions per second overall and 3400 rating. The >>>actual results for DB-2 which arrived in 1997 (5 years late) were 256 chess >>>chips, 2-2.5 million positions per second per chip, 200 million positions per >>>second overall and rating 2900. So he missed rather badly. >>> James B. Shearer >> >> >>DB-2 used 480 chess chips, and peaked at 1B nodes per second. I didn't see the >>3200 rating, and wouldn't have believed _that_ had I seen it, which predicts >>a 3:1 win/lose ratio vs a 2800 player. But for his hardware, I think he hit >>it pretty accurately, except for the time-frame. When you read his book, you >>will see that at least 2 years were lost in some of the P/R things IBM had him >>do, such as playing in Hong Kong, where they had to cobble something together >>with old hardware to play. IBM wanted visibility _all_ along the way... > > The IBM web site says 256 chips (32 processors * 8 chips per) but I >see Hsu says 480 (30 processors * 16 chips per) in his IEEE paper so I suppose >that is correct. Still less than 1000. > As for speed if you want to compare peak rate then the projected peak >rate was 3 billion (1000 chips * 3 million per) so he is still short. > The projected rating was 3400 not 3200. > James B. Shearer >PS: When is Hsu's book coming out? Good question. I would assume reasonably soon since it was in good shape. I gave him the usual "grammar critique" that he asked for, and asked him to expand a bit more on the details of the last Kasparov match, as I felt he was getting a bit rushed near the end and could add some more interesting details... I haven't heard from him since he left IBM, but I would assume we should see something before long...
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