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Subject: Re: In the year 2015, PC's will be fast as Deeper Blue??? (bold prediction)

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 05:09:47 03/03/00

Go up one level in this thread


On March 03, 2000 at 03:44:48, Dave Gomboc wrote:

>On March 02, 2000 at 18:26:09, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>>On March 02, 2000 at 01:42:43, Ed Schröder wrote:
>>
>>>On March 01, 2000 at 20:52:52, Jonathan Lee wrote:
>>>
>>>>Thanks, Pete on IBM's logic on their selling of chess software.  If their
>>>>software was awesome, they already would have a large share against the top
>>>>guns.
>>>>
>>>>Someday said every 18 months the hardware doubles in speed.
>>>>Someone else said IBM's hardware "DB" is 1000 times faster than the 500MHZ PIII.
>>>>In the year 2015, (what a bold prediction) PC's will be as fast as Deep Blue.
>>>>Do the math:
>>>>2 ^ 10 = 1024  (twice the speed 10 times equals about 1000 times faster)
>>>>
>>>>18 * 10 = 180 (18 months multiplied by ten times equals 180 months)
>>>>
>>>>180 months equals 15 years
>>>>
>>>>2000 + 15 = 2015 (We are now in the year 2000; add 15 years and you will get
>>>>2015)
>>>
>>>What about today?
>>>
>>>Nowadays programs hit a deeper ply depth than DB. See the log files
>>>on the IBM site.
>>>
>>>Ed
>>
>>
>>No...  you are mis-reading the logs.  When you see depth=10/5, that means
>>10 ply (full width + extensions) in the software, another 5 plies + everything
>>but singular extensions in the chess engine.  When you look at those numbers,
>>we are getting crushed in search depth.  10(5) means 15 plies full-width, no
>>null-move or anything, + their extensions.
>>
>>This was covered when we were discussing the DB logs.  I confirmed this
>>point with two different DB team members to be sure we were understanding the
>>(n) number correctly.  Looking at the logs, the hardware searches 4-6 plies
>>depending on the base software search depth.  When you see 11(6) that is a
>>full-width 17 ply search, which is awesome.
>
>Double-check that.  11(6): 17-ply search, yes.  _full-width_ 17-ply search, I
>don't think so.  The top of the software search is full-width, the bottom of the
>software search is selective, and the hardware search is full-width again.  At
>least, that is my understanding.  The interesting question is how many of the 11
>in software were full-width... and my recollection is that the answer is not 11.
>
>Dave


There is _no_ selective search in DB.  They do "selective extensions" in the
software, but _every_ move is searched to at least the depth given.  IE if you
see 11(6), then *every* move at the root is searched to at _least_ 17 plies
deep, not counting the capture search.  And most are searched deeper due to the
extensions.

_None_ are searched to less than that depth.  DB _never_ had any sort of forward
pruning in the normal search, although it did have a sort of futility cutoff in
the capture search only.

This is all well-documented.  Hsu didn't believe in selectivity at all when
applied to pruning.

The answer to your question _is_ "11".



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