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Subject: Re: In the year 2015, PC's will be fast as Deeper Blue??? (bold prediction)

Author: Ed Schröder

Date: 09:51:28 03/03/00

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On March 02, 2000 at 18:28:31, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>On March 02, 2000 at 05:12:10, Ed Schröder wrote:
>
>>On March 02, 2000 at 04:45:46, Jeremiah Penery wrote:
>>
>>>On March 02, 2000 at 03:58:13, blass uri wrote:
>>>
>>>>On March 02, 2000 at 01:42:43, Ed Schröder wrote:
>>>>
>>>>>Nowadays programs hit a deeper ply depth than DB. See the log files
>>>>>on the IBM site.
>>>>>
>>>>2)I understood also from hyatt's posts that you need to add 3-4 plies to the
>>>>depth in the logfiles of the IBM site to get the real depth.
>>>
>>>Actually, it's more than that.  For this search:
>>>
>>>depth   score    time   PV
>>>11(6)	48	T=204	Qa7...
>>>
>>>You have a depth of 11 PLUS *six* plies of hardware depth.  So a total depth of
>>>_17_.  That seems to be about the average depth of most of their searches.
>>>That's a bit beyond PC programs.  And we know they were extending probably more
>>>than PC programs also.
>>
>>Is there an official statement of this?
>>
>>It's all not so clear.
>>
>>We also don't know which or how many extensions are done. The same
>>applies for most chess programs BTW. We can only guess.
>>
>>Ed
>
>
>This is official from the DB team, two different members confirming the
>notion that (x) is additional plies searched only by the hardware.  I told
>vincent for several years that when they said "10" plies they meant something
>different than he did.  This was common knowledge for deep thought.  I just
>never thought to re-state it since it was mentioned so many times at the ACM
>events they participated in.
>
>11(6) suddenly becomes frightening, doesn't it?  :)

Maybe, maybe not :)

Nowadays chess programs have a branch factor of 2-2.5. DB has a branch
factor of 4. Every doubling in PC speed we are almost hitting one ply
deeper, coming closer and closer and eat the thing for dinner in the end :)

Alarming doesn't it? :)

Ed




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