Author: blass uri
Date: 14:28:37 03/20/00
Go up one level in this thread
On March 20, 2000 at 13:56:59, Christophe Theron wrote: >On March 20, 2000 at 06:46:37, Bertil Eklund wrote: > >>On March 19, 2000 at 22:26:49, Christophe Theron wrote: >> >>>On March 19, 2000 at 15:41:30, Bertil Eklund wrote: >>> >>>> >>>>Hi! >>>> >>>>A very impressive result from Shredder4. >>>> >>>>IMO Shredder plays positionally very good and excellent in the endgames. >>>>Nimzo is a bit stronger tactically. >>>> >>>>Shredder4 used all 4 Turbo-CDs. >>>> >>>>Bertil >>> >>> >>>Bertil, >>> >>>I am not sure this message is going to be well accepted. So let me first state >>>that I have the greatest respect for your work and the SSDF. >>> >>>Let me also state that I have a lot of respect for Nimzo, Shredder, and their >>>respective authors. >>Yes it's all great programs. >> >> >>>However, I can only strongly disagree with your sentence "a very impressive >>>result from Shredder4". >> >>57,5% against a program known as one of the best on tournament time-control >>impressed at least me. I only talk about this 40 game match. Maybe it loses to >>Tiger in the next match but it's another match. > > >Maybe Tiger loses, actually I do not know. > >But 57.5% must be taken with a statistical grain of salt. From the statistical >data I have, and I'm open to discussion about this, on a 40 games match you can >expect the error margin to be +/- 8.0% if you want 80% confidence. 1)If you assume probability of 50% for win and of 50% for loss between equal players and assume that colours of the players are not relevant the standard error is sqrt(0.5*0.5*40)=sqrt(10)>3.1 points and in this case 3 is almost the standard error 3.2/40=8% so in this case the error margin is really +/- 8.0% 2)If you assume probability of 20% for win and of 20% of loss and 60% for a draw between equal players(colours are not relevant) the standard error is: sqrt(0.4*0.5*0.5*40)=sqrt(4)=2 when 0.4*0.4*0.5 is the variation in on game 0.4*0.5*0.5*40 is the variation in 40 games and I do square root of it to calculate the standard error. In this case the standard error is only 5%. I think this assumption assumes more draws then there are between computers. 3)If you assume 40% for white 30% for a draw 30% for black between equal players then the variance in one game is 0.4*0.45*0.45+0.3*0.05*0.05+0.3*0.55*0.55=0.4*0.2025+0.3*0.0025+0.3*0.3025= 0.1725 In this case the variance in 40 games is 0.1725*40=7.1 and the standard deviation is sqrt(7.1)<2.7 2.7/40=6.75% and the standard deviation is +-6.7% The last case seems to be something close to the realistic case in games between equal programs(I believe that there are more draws between equal programs and this reduce the standard deviation but I am not sure) The probability for a draw is also dependent on the style of the programs. Uri
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