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Subject: Re: Off-topic:How Long Before Superintelligence? Probably too soon.

Author: KarinsDad

Date: 19:23:49 03/28/00

Go up one level in this thread


On March 28, 2000 at 21:11:40, Fernando Villegas wrote:

>On March 28, 2000 at 14:08:18, KarinsDad wrote:
>
>>On March 28, 2000 at 13:36:01, Fernando Villegas wrote:
>>
>>>Hi KD:
>>>You are right. All that is unavoidable. By the way, last friday night, in my
>>>"Toby Club" reunion with my intimate friends, one of them putted the issue of a
>>>very smart guy of the software industry that wrote an article about how we are
>>>very near the day we will lose our capacity to take decisions, all of them in
>>>the "hands" from then on of computers. And he called that apocalipsis. I said:
>>>"what's the problem? Apocalipsis has been created in a daily base by us, human
>>>breed. I cannot imagine worst decisions that the many one that carried entire
>>>countries to awful wars. Or the many decisions that has harassed the planet..."
>>>So, if one day a super computer or league of super computers get the upper hand,
>>>It cannot be a worst scenary that what happens each day when we, human, take our
>>>powerful tools and use them silly and criminally.
>>>Fernando
>>
>>I disagree with your last sentence.
>>
>
>You mean that you does not agree with the fact we have used badly our powers?


No, I have already agreed with that. I disagree that it cannot be a worse
scenario. It can be much worse. The planet could be razed of all life.


>
>
>>I feel sad though to think that it all could end.
>>
>>Of course, humans have been making poor decisions throughout our limited
>>history, but to make a decision to create a device for the overall betterment
>>and for it to become the replacement species is kind of sad.
>>
>>And recently, I have been feeling that it is getting better instead of worse.
>>Granted, there are still wars in some countries, poverty in others, and
>>pollution in all parts of the world. But overall, it looked like it was
>>improving. That may be naive on my part, but hope was still there, at least for
>>me.
>
>I think too that things are better in some respects, but very more dangerous in
>others. 5000 thousand years ago we lived as animals and we were empowered enough
>to make war to each other, but at least the global damage we could muster was
>very limited. that's not the case today.


Ok, let's go back 10,000 years. Most scientists think that the extinction of
Mammoths was aggravated by or even caused by humans slaughtering them. Is the
extermination of a proliferate, large and powerful species not global damage?
Some would say yes, some would say no.


>
>>
>>But, a simple set of calculations seems to illustrate that this could all change
>>and not for the better. Will we recognize potential dangers soon enough and put
>>a limit to super intelligence or will we destroy ourselves? Only time will tell.
>>
>>As for apocalypse, you should have lived 5000 years ago when people had to scrap
>>out a living with sticks. That was an apocalypse. That was when life was hard.
>>What we have today is a series of small brush fires in comparison. What we have
>>in a hundred years may make life 5000 years ago look pleasant.
>>
>
>I cannot agree here. Small brush fires are not. They are great enough. As I
>said, we now are capable of destroying at global scale.


What we are capable of and what we do are two different things.


 Nevertheless, notthing
>is written yet, we could get a sortie, but, who knows, maybe will be computer
>super intelñligenge -sad as it is.- that perhas will do the job. Maybe we are
>already obsolete. there is a novel by about something lihe that, the sad end of
>Neantherdal spcie under the somewhat more intelligent cro-magnon.


Yes. Exactly.


 One of these
>days I will browse my library and I will find the name of the author and the
>title of the novel, if you are interested. It is a wonderfully well writen and
>magnificent work.


Yes, I enjoy reading books that I haven't read yet.


>Fernando


KarinsDad :)



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