Author: David Blackman
Date: 02:12:28 04/11/00
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On April 11, 2000 at 00:44:34, Georg Langrath wrote: >1n 1980 a compterprogram had about 1300 ELO-ratimg. Chess 4.7 was probably around 2000 rating before 1980. 1300 might be about right for the best microcomputer programs in 1980. (That's 1300 by 1980 standards. I think the average 1000 player today should beat any microcomputer program from 1980). >1990 2000 ELo-rating. I think Deep Thought existed and was starting to get good around 1990. Probably 2300 or better. The best microcomputers were probably still a little below 2000, but they improved a lot soon after this. >2000 about 2700 Elo-rating. The best microcomputers now are probably not quite that good. Deep Blue and the best supercomputer programs seem to be retired. The best programs still playing now seem to be somewhere in the range 2400 to 2700. No one is sure exactly what rating. >700 more every 10 years. Somebody that has the courage to >guess where Elorating is 2010? It will be easy to control >if this message-group is still left. Yes I guess 700 Eloratings >more, and that nobody but machines can win over them then, >I think this will depend most on faster hardware. > >Georg Hardware improvements on their own should be enough to get computers to between 2800 and 3200 by 2010. However i expect software improvements to be even more important, resulting in computers stronger than 3500 by then.
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