Author: stuart taylor
Date: 23:28:07 04/11/00
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On April 11, 2000 at 06:34:44, Colin Frayn wrote: >>Chess 4.7 was probably around 2000 rating before 1980. 1300 might be about right >>for the best microcomputer programs in 1980. (That's 1300 by 1980 standards. I >>think the average 1000 player today should beat any microcomputer program from >>1980). > >Remember that computers don't make mistakes. You can get a computer program >exhaustively searching 3 ply depth and it still plays ptreety well in shorter >time controls and you have to be careful when you're playing blitz. Especially >if the positional evaluation is good. > >>Hardware improvements on their own should be enough to get computers to between >>2800 and 3200 by 2010. > >Hmmm... dubious. Of course the improvement in ELO with processor speed is not >linear, but goes more slowly than that. I think that the top supercomputer type >program in 2010 will be able to make over 3000 ELO. >You have to remember that computer speed probably won't continue to increase at >this rate for another 10 years either. There are some pretty large physical >constraints beginning to feature in the latest generation CPUs. > >> However i expect software improvements to be even more >>important, resulting in computers stronger than 3500 by then. > >I disagree. It would take a few stupendously impressive algorithms to generate >that sort of ELO improvement. Full 6 man tablebases won't make _that_ much >difference, and even enormous opening books are probably still not going to be >the deciding factor when playing against human GMs. Perhaps improvements in >making computers play well against humans might well cause a few ELO >improvement, but I think 3500 is extremely optimistic. I think we'll have >supercomputer programs playing as if they were humans with a rating of 3000, but >anything more is probably wishful thinking. :) > >Still.... 3000 would be nice :) Imagine the new middlegame theory...... > >Cheers, >Col Most people including myself don't even know what a compterprogram is-yet. when they become popular I suppose anything could happen! S.Taylor
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