Author: blass uri
Date: 05:40:55 04/12/00
Go up one level in this thread
On April 11, 2000 at 05:12:28, David Blackman wrote: >On April 11, 2000 at 00:44:34, Georg Langrath wrote: > >>1n 1980 a compterprogram had about 1300 ELO-ratimg. > >Chess 4.7 was probably around 2000 rating before 1980. 1300 might be about right >for the best microcomputer programs in 1980. (That's 1300 by 1980 standards. I >think the average 1000 player today should beat any microcomputer program from >1980). There are no 1000 players in Israel because the minimal rating is 1300 I remember programs like sargonII(I think it was available near 1980) and my impression is that it can win easily the 1000 personalities of chessmaster6000. I guess the best programs of 1980 could have rating of something like 1600-1700 I do not understand why do you assume that players with rating of 1000 are today better than they were in 1980. > >>1990 2000 ELo-rating. > >I think Deep Thought existed and was starting to get good around 1990. Probably >2300 or better. The best microcomputers were probably still a little below 2000, >but they improved a lot soon after this. again I disagree The best programs of 1990 had probably 2300 rating. one of them(mephisto of richard lang if I remember right) won deep thought in a game. > >>2000 about 2700 Elo-rating. > >The best microcomputers now are probably not quite that good. Deep Blue and the >best supercomputer programs seem to be retired. The best programs still playing >now seem to be somewhere in the range 2400 to 2700. No one is sure exactly what >rating. Here I agree. > >>700 more every 10 years. Somebody that has the courage to >>guess where Elorating is 2010? It will be easy to control >>if this message-group is still left. Yes I guess 700 Eloratings >>more, and that nobody but machines can win over them then, >>I think this will depend most on faster hardware. >> >>Georg > >Hardware improvements on their own should be enough to get computers to between >2800 and 3200 by 2010. I disagree. I do not think that top programs can get a rating of 2800 against humans by being 1000 times faster. However i expect software improvements to be even more >important, resulting in computers stronger than 3500 by then. I again disagree. I doubt if it is possible to get 3500 rating in chess(there is a maximal rating that it is possible to get). Uri
This page took 0 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.