Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 07:18:59 04/12/00
Go up one level in this thread
On April 12, 2000 at 08:40:55, blass uri wrote: >On April 11, 2000 at 05:12:28, David Blackman wrote: > >>On April 11, 2000 at 00:44:34, Georg Langrath wrote: >> >>>1n 1980 a compterprogram had about 1300 ELO-ratimg. >> >>Chess 4.7 was probably around 2000 rating before 1980. 1300 might be about right >>for the best microcomputer programs in 1980. (That's 1300 by 1980 standards. I >>think the average 1000 player today should beat any microcomputer program from >>1980). > >There are no 1000 players in Israel because the minimal rating is 1300 > >I remember programs like sargonII(I think it was available near 1980) >and my impression is that it can win easily the 1000 personalities of >chessmaster6000. > >I guess the best programs of 1980 could have rating of something like 1600-1700 > >I do not understand why do you assume that players with rating of 1000 are today >better than they were in 1980. > > >> >>>1990 2000 ELo-rating. >> >>I think Deep Thought existed and was starting to get good around 1990. Probably >>2300 or better. The best microcomputers were probably still a little below 2000, >>but they improved a lot soon after this. > >again I disagree > >The best programs of 1990 had probably 2300 rating. >one of them(mephisto of richard lang if I remember right) won deep thought in a >game. > > >> >>>2000 about 2700 Elo-rating. >> >>The best microcomputers now are probably not quite that good. Deep Blue and the >>best supercomputer programs seem to be retired. The best programs still playing >>now seem to be somewhere in the range 2400 to 2700. No one is sure exactly what >>rating. > >Here I agree. >> >>>700 more every 10 years. Somebody that has the courage to >>>guess where Elorating is 2010? It will be easy to control >>>if this message-group is still left. Yes I guess 700 Eloratings >>>more, and that nobody but machines can win over them then, >>>I think this will depend most on faster hardware. >>> >>>Georg >> >>Hardware improvements on their own should be enough to get computers to between >>2800 and 3200 by 2010. > >I disagree. >I do not think that top programs can get a rating of 2800 against humans by >being 1000 times faster. > > However i expect software improvements to be even more >>important, resulting in computers stronger than 3500 by then. > >I again disagree. >I doubt if it is possible to get 3500 rating in chess(there is a maximal rating >that it is possible to get). > >Uri You were doing good until there. But there is no maximal rating. If you find a player that beats everybody but one player 100% of the time, that player will have a rating that is over 400 points higher than the best player he plays. If you have one more player that can beat this guy 100% of the time, then his rating will be 400 points+ higher still. The only limit on a player's rating is his skill and the ratings of the players he is beating... If the highest-rated player in the pool is 1500, then nobody will get to 3000 even if they beat everybody in the pool... But that limit is a relative one...
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