Author: Graham Laight
Date: 07:55:41 04/12/00
Go up one level in this thread
On April 12, 2000 at 10:18:59, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On April 12, 2000 at 08:40:55, blass uri wrote: > >>On April 11, 2000 at 05:12:28, David Blackman wrote: >> >>>On April 11, 2000 at 00:44:34, Georg Langrath wrote: >>> >>>>1n 1980 a compterprogram had about 1300 ELO-ratimg. >>> >>>Chess 4.7 was probably around 2000 rating before 1980. 1300 might be about right >>>for the best microcomputer programs in 1980. (That's 1300 by 1980 standards. I >>>think the average 1000 player today should beat any microcomputer program from >>>1980). >> >>There are no 1000 players in Israel because the minimal rating is 1300 >> >>I remember programs like sargonII(I think it was available near 1980) >>and my impression is that it can win easily the 1000 personalities of >>chessmaster6000. >> >>I guess the best programs of 1980 could have rating of something like 1600-1700 >> >>I do not understand why do you assume that players with rating of 1000 are today >>better than they were in 1980. >> >> >>> >>>>1990 2000 ELo-rating. >>> >>>I think Deep Thought existed and was starting to get good around 1990. Probably >>>2300 or better. The best microcomputers were probably still a little below 2000, >>>but they improved a lot soon after this. >> >>again I disagree >> >>The best programs of 1990 had probably 2300 rating. >>one of them(mephisto of richard lang if I remember right) won deep thought in a >>game. >> >> >>> >>>>2000 about 2700 Elo-rating. >>> >>>The best microcomputers now are probably not quite that good. Deep Blue and the >>>best supercomputer programs seem to be retired. The best programs still playing >>>now seem to be somewhere in the range 2400 to 2700. No one is sure exactly what >>>rating. >> >>Here I agree. >>> >>>>700 more every 10 years. Somebody that has the courage to >>>>guess where Elorating is 2010? It will be easy to control >>>>if this message-group is still left. Yes I guess 700 Eloratings >>>>more, and that nobody but machines can win over them then, >>>>I think this will depend most on faster hardware. >>>> >>>>Georg >>> >>>Hardware improvements on their own should be enough to get computers to between >>>2800 and 3200 by 2010. >> >>I disagree. >>I do not think that top programs can get a rating of 2800 against humans by >>being 1000 times faster. >> >> However i expect software improvements to be even more >>>important, resulting in computers stronger than 3500 by then. >> >>I again disagree. >>I doubt if it is possible to get 3500 rating in chess(there is a maximal rating >>that it is possible to get). >> >>Uri > > >You were doing good until there. But there is no maximal rating. If you >find a player that beats everybody but one player 100% of the time, that >player will have a rating that is over 400 points higher than the best player >he plays. If you have one more player that can beat this guy 100% of the >time, then his rating will be 400 points+ higher still. > >The only limit on a player's rating is his skill and the ratings of the players >he is beating... If the highest-rated player in the pool is 1500, then nobody >will get to 3000 even if they beat everybody in the pool... > >But that limit is a relative one... I suspect that you'd eventually get to a point where nearly all games are draws. Could somebody with Chessbase please create a table of draw ratios against elo rating? For example, based PURELY on guesswork, it might look as follows: Elo Rating Percentage Of Draws Against Players Of Similar Rating ========== ===================================================== 1000 5 1500 15 2000 25 2500 50 2800 60 -g
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