Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 11:42:10 04/12/00
Go up one level in this thread
On April 12, 2000 at 12:55:16, James Robertson wrote: >On April 12, 2000 at 12:12:01, Chris Carson wrote: > >> FIDE >>S/W Mp MHZ TPR SSDF >>Hiarcs 6 PII 350 2611 2624 450 MHZ for SSDF >>CM 6K PII 450 2554 2574 200 MHZ for SSDF >>Fritz 6 PIII 500 2489 2721 450 MHZ for SSDF > >From your post, these are the only results on modern hardware. How can you >explain a 2489 TPR for Fritz, when, on slower hardware, it is rated **232** >points higher by the SSDF??? How about CM6k, rated 20 points higher on less than >one half the hardware? The only result that looks reasonable is Hiarcs', but how >many games has Hiarcs 6 played against humans at 40/2? Even 10 leaves a massive >potential error. > >Obviously, something is completely out of whack. At least for modern programs on >modern hardware, the list is a terrible predictor of strength against humans. > >James > >BTW, what is the difference between the SSDF results for Junior and the actual >results of Deep Junior in the Israeli League? I don't think that any of the results are unexpected. ELO is a prediction for a huge body of data, not for individual matches. It seems to me that the predictions have gone remarkably well. If we just go by ELO, then there is no such thing as an upset. But clearly upsets do happen in the real world. I think the programs may really be nearing GM strength. OTOH, I also believe that if GM's bothered to learn anticomputer tactics, the computer ratings would go into the toilet for a while (though -at some point- they must overtake human efforts).
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