Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 15:05:43 04/12/00
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On April 12, 2000 at 17:49:23, Wayne Lowrance wrote: >A uscf expert player friend of mine of about 40 years ago told me a player 100 >uscf points higher than its opponent could/should expect to win 7 to 8 games out >of ten. I took that to mean 70 to 80 percent as 10 games is too few. > >Can the same be expected of chess programs playing each other when the cpu clock >is doubled on one of the programs. (60 to 100 ELO points superior). Win expectency for a difference of 0 points is 0.5 Win expectency for a difference of 100 points is 0.359935 Win expectency for a difference of 200 points is 0.240253 Win expectency for a difference of 300 points is 0.15098 Win expectency for a difference of 400 points is 0.0909091 Win expectency for a difference of 500 points is 0.0532402 Win expectency for a difference of 600 points is 0.0306534 Win expectency for a difference of 700 points is 0.0174721 Win expectency for a difference of 800 points is 0.00990099 Win expectency for a difference of 900 points is 0.00559197 Win expectency for a difference of 1000 points is 0.00315231 Remember that these numbers are *averages* and do not apply to a single result. In other words, it is not unimaginable for someone 100 points below in ELO to have a 4-0 result against the better player. Win expectancies are related to the pool for which data is available, and the larger the number of contests, the more secure the figures are.
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