Author: Chris Carson
Date: 05:44:32 04/17/00
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On April 17, 2000 at 06:20:40, Jouni Uski wrote: >On April 16, 2000 at 15:14:44, Chris Carson wrote: > >>Many people have been asking for this information: >> >> Opp >> FIDE >>Program HW TPR Avg W D L N > >>Fritz 6 500 mhz 2461 2461 1 3 1 5 > >This is quite a lot from SSDF 2721... We do not know the SSDF for Shredder 4 or Rebel-Cen, my guess is that they are very close to SSDF. When you consider the error of measure for both rating systems (error=157 for above fritz 6 and +39, -37 for SSDF Fritz 6) then the numbers are predictable results (95% confidence = 2 errors of measure). I might add that human ratings fluctuate as well. :) Large errors of measure for small number of games with some wins, draws, and losses. :) Fritz vs Fide range (2 errors = 314) -> actual rating somewhere between 2147 and 2775 based on 5 games. Very high margin of error. SSDF range (2 errors = +78 and -74) -> actual rating somewhere between 2647 and 2799 based on 368 games. More reliable due to more games. I see little sig. stat. difference between the two ratings, however, SSDF has said that a 25 to 50 point adjustment downward might prove to be resonable. Make whatever conclusions you like. :) Some people expect the computers to always perform above some level. You can say that you are 95% conf that Frit 6 will perform at 2147 if it makes you feel better. :) However, that would not be a true (or average) level of playing strength for Fritz 6 on this hardware, but you would be right 95% of the time (wrong 5%). :) I prefer to base my estimate on the more valid and reliable (more games playe) SSDF list. Just my opinion. :) If you take the lower number for the computer ratings, then you should subtract two errors of measure from the human (FIDE) ratings to also be 95% confident of performance above that rating. If you do that, I think the relative difference would be about the same, based on number of games played. :) Best Regards, Chris Carson
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