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Subject: Re: Bushinksy says No GM will be able to win against a comp in 8 game match!

Author: Robert Hyatt

Date: 20:56:39 04/19/00

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On April 19, 2000 at 23:39:03, Paulo Soares wrote:

>On April 19, 2000 at 23:31:13, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>>On April 19, 2000 at 23:19:22, Drazen Marovic wrote:
>>
>>> In around 3 years Bushinsky hypothesizes no human can win in an 8 game match.
>>>Well If deep blue is rebuilt and upgraded then yes, oterwise no IMHO.  PC comps
>>>will be between 2500 and 2680 for the next 8 years IMHO.
>>>
>>>"Shay Bushinsky answers
>>>
>>>
>>>The term unbeatable is a very tough word indeed. I cannot say that a computer
>>>will ever be unbeatable in any given game in the near future, but I do see a
>>>time - maybe in about three years from now, when a computer will always prevail
>>>in an 8 game match against the strongest human "
>>>
>>>Taken from the kasparov site
>>
>>
>>I also expect to see a pig flying in about 3 years, +/- 50 years.  :)
>>
>>
>>In 10 years, this _might_ be true.  I don't think in 3 years however..
>
>Why 10 years?
>
>Paulo Soares, from Brazil

that is about how far we are behind the hardware speed of deep blue, based on
classic Moore's law.  It is only a wild guess...  I would say 10 years at
least...  maybe more...  and only if Moore's law holds...



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