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Subject: Re: Bushinksy says No GM will be able to win against a comp in 8 game match!

Author: Lanny DiBartolomeo

Date: 21:29:26 04/19/00

Go up one level in this thread


On April 19, 2000 at 23:56:39, Robert Hyatt wrote:

>On April 19, 2000 at 23:39:03, Paulo Soares wrote:
>
>>On April 19, 2000 at 23:31:13, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>
>>>On April 19, 2000 at 23:19:22, Drazen Marovic wrote:
>>>
>>>> In around 3 years Bushinsky hypothesizes no human can win in an 8 game match.
>>>>Well If deep blue is rebuilt and upgraded then yes, oterwise no IMHO.  PC comps
>>>>will be between 2500 and 2680 for the next 8 years IMHO.
>>>>
>>>>"Shay Bushinsky answers
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>The term unbeatable is a very tough word indeed. I cannot say that a computer
>>>>will ever be unbeatable in any given game in the near future, but I do see a
>>>>time - maybe in about three years from now, when a computer will always prevail
>>>>in an 8 game match against the strongest human "
>>>>
>>>>Taken from the kasparov site
>>>
>>>
>>>I also expect to see a pig flying in about 3 years, +/- 50 years.  :)
>>>
>>>
>>>In 10 years, this _might_ be true.  I don't think in 3 years however..
>>
>>Why 10 years?
>>
>>Paulo Soares, from Brazil
>
>that is about how far we are behind the hardware speed of deep blue, based on
>classic Moore's law.  It is only a wild guess...  I would say 10 years at
>least...  maybe more...  and only if Moore's law holds...

To be on the safe side,If computers were 2450 now in standard time control, a 50
point improvement per year averaged out for 6 years would bring them up to 2750
(thats with processing speed and better programing) it seems realistic that by
10 years to have a program being a world champion (if allowed) 2900-2950
standard.



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