Author: Paulo Soares
Date: 22:01:28 04/19/00
Go up one level in this thread
On April 20, 2000 at 00:29:26, Lanny DiBartolomeo wrote: >On April 19, 2000 at 23:56:39, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >>On April 19, 2000 at 23:39:03, Paulo Soares wrote: >> >>>On April 19, 2000 at 23:31:13, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>> >>>>On April 19, 2000 at 23:19:22, Drazen Marovic wrote: >>>> >>>>> In around 3 years Bushinsky hypothesizes no human can win in an 8 game match. >>>>>Well If deep blue is rebuilt and upgraded then yes, oterwise no IMHO. PC comps >>>>>will be between 2500 and 2680 for the next 8 years IMHO. >>>>> >>>>>"Shay Bushinsky answers >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>The term unbeatable is a very tough word indeed. I cannot say that a computer >>>>>will ever be unbeatable in any given game in the near future, but I do see a >>>>>time - maybe in about three years from now, when a computer will always prevail >>>>>in an 8 game match against the strongest human " >>>>> >>>>>Taken from the kasparov site >>>> >>>> >>>>I also expect to see a pig flying in about 3 years, +/- 50 years. :) >>>> >>>> >>>>In 10 years, this _might_ be true. I don't think in 3 years however.. >>> >>>Why 10 years? >>> >>>Paulo Soares, from Brazil >> >>that is about how far we are behind the hardware speed of deep blue, based on >>classic Moore's law. It is only a wild guess... I would say 10 years at >>least... maybe more... and only if Moore's law holds... > >To be on the safe side,If computers were 2450 now in standard time control, a 50 >point improvement per year averaged out for 6 years would bring them up to 2750 >(thats with processing speed and better programing) it seems realistic that by >10 years to have a program being a world champion (if allowed) 2900-2950 >standard. I think 50 to 70 points is based on SSDF list(I am not sure), and Fritz6 have a SSDF rating of 2721. Fide list (Jan/2000) shows Leko with a 2725 rating. It's dificult to believe that Fritz6 can draw with Leko in games 40/2. Paulo
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