Author: Paulo Soares
Date: 22:16:44 04/19/00
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On April 19, 2000 at 23:56:39, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On April 19, 2000 at 23:39:03, Paulo Soares wrote: > >>On April 19, 2000 at 23:31:13, Robert Hyatt wrote: >> >>>On April 19, 2000 at 23:19:22, Drazen Marovic wrote: >>> >>>> In around 3 years Bushinsky hypothesizes no human can win in an 8 game match. >>>>Well If deep blue is rebuilt and upgraded then yes, oterwise no IMHO. PC comps >>>>will be between 2500 and 2680 for the next 8 years IMHO. >>>> >>>>"Shay Bushinsky answers >>>> >>>> >>>>The term unbeatable is a very tough word indeed. I cannot say that a computer >>>>will ever be unbeatable in any given game in the near future, but I do see a >>>>time - maybe in about three years from now, when a computer will always prevail >>>>in an 8 game match against the strongest human " >>>> >>>>Taken from the kasparov site >>> >>> >>>I also expect to see a pig flying in about 3 years, +/- 50 years. :) >>> >>> >>>In 10 years, this _might_ be true. I don't think in 3 years however.. >> >>Why 10 years? >> >>Paulo Soares, from Brazil > >that is about how far we are behind the hardware speed of deep blue, based on >classic Moore's law. It is only a wild guess... I would say 10 years at >least... maybe more... and only if Moore's law holds... Moore's law: "To every 18 months the processors double the speed". In 10 years=120 months, we will have 120/18=6 times in that the processors will double the speed, what means that in 10 years we will have processors with approximately 1Gz(actual frequency) x 2(6) = 64 Gz! But about the software, you don't think the development of the software will have a weight reasonable on these ten years? Paulo
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