Author: blass uri
Date: 22:18:06 04/19/00
Go up one level in this thread
On April 20, 2000 at 01:01:28, Paulo Soares wrote: >On April 20, 2000 at 00:29:26, Lanny DiBartolomeo wrote: > >>On April 19, 2000 at 23:56:39, Robert Hyatt wrote: >> >>>On April 19, 2000 at 23:39:03, Paulo Soares wrote: >>> >>>>On April 19, 2000 at 23:31:13, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>>> >>>>>On April 19, 2000 at 23:19:22, Drazen Marovic wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> In around 3 years Bushinsky hypothesizes no human can win in an 8 game match. >>>>>>Well If deep blue is rebuilt and upgraded then yes, oterwise no IMHO. PC comps >>>>>>will be between 2500 and 2680 for the next 8 years IMHO. >>>>>> >>>>>>"Shay Bushinsky answers >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>The term unbeatable is a very tough word indeed. I cannot say that a computer >>>>>>will ever be unbeatable in any given game in the near future, but I do see a >>>>>>time - maybe in about three years from now, when a computer will always prevail >>>>>>in an 8 game match against the strongest human " >>>>>> >>>>>>Taken from the kasparov site >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>I also expect to see a pig flying in about 3 years, +/- 50 years. :) >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>In 10 years, this _might_ be true. I don't think in 3 years however.. >>>> >>>>Why 10 years? >>>> >>>>Paulo Soares, from Brazil >>> >>>that is about how far we are behind the hardware speed of deep blue, based on >>>classic Moore's law. It is only a wild guess... I would say 10 years at >>>least... maybe more... and only if Moore's law holds... >> >>To be on the safe side,If computers were 2450 now in standard time control, a 50 >>point improvement per year averaged out for 6 years would bring them up to 2750 >>(thats with processing speed and better programing) it seems realistic that by >>10 years to have a program being a world champion (if allowed) 2900-2950 >>standard. > >I think 50 to 70 points is based on SSDF list(I am not sure), and >Fritz6 have a SSDF rating of 2721. Fide list (Jan/2000) >shows Leko with a 2725 rating. It's dificult to believe >that Fritz6 can draw with Leko in games 40/2. > >Paulo 50 to 70 points by the ssdf is only software improvement. If you include hardware improvement it is more than 100 ssdf rating for year and it may be 50 elo against humans. I think that one of the problems against humans can be that humans will learn to play better. Uri
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