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Subject: Re: Bushinksy says No GM will be able to win against a comp in 8 game match!

Author: blass uri

Date: 22:20:32 04/19/00

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On April 20, 2000 at 01:16:44, Paulo Soares wrote:

>On April 19, 2000 at 23:56:39, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>
>>On April 19, 2000 at 23:39:03, Paulo Soares wrote:
>>
>>>On April 19, 2000 at 23:31:13, Robert Hyatt wrote:
>>>
>>>>On April 19, 2000 at 23:19:22, Drazen Marovic wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> In around 3 years Bushinsky hypothesizes no human can win in an 8 game match.
>>>>>Well If deep blue is rebuilt and upgraded then yes, oterwise no IMHO.  PC comps
>>>>>will be between 2500 and 2680 for the next 8 years IMHO.
>>>>>
>>>>>"Shay Bushinsky answers
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>The term unbeatable is a very tough word indeed. I cannot say that a computer
>>>>>will ever be unbeatable in any given game in the near future, but I do see a
>>>>>time - maybe in about three years from now, when a computer will always prevail
>>>>>in an 8 game match against the strongest human "
>>>>>
>>>>>Taken from the kasparov site
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>I also expect to see a pig flying in about 3 years, +/- 50 years.  :)
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>In 10 years, this _might_ be true.  I don't think in 3 years however..
>>>
>>>Why 10 years?
>>>
>>>Paulo Soares, from Brazil
>>
>>that is about how far we are behind the hardware speed of deep blue, based on
>>classic Moore's law.  It is only a wild guess...  I would say 10 years at
>>least...  maybe more...  and only if Moore's law holds...
>
>Moore's law: "To every 18 months the processors double the speed". In 10
>years=120 months, we will have 120/18=6 times in that the processors will
>double the speed, what means that in 10 years we will have processors with
>approximately 1Gz(actual frequency) x 2(6) = 64 Gz!
>But about the software, you don't think the development of the software will
>have a weight reasonable on these ten years?
>
>Paulo

I think the developement of software can also help humans because there will be
better software to teach humans to play better.

Uri



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