Author: Paulo Soares
Date: 22:44:47 04/19/00
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On April 20, 2000 at 01:20:32, blass uri wrote: >On April 20, 2000 at 01:16:44, Paulo Soares wrote: > >>On April 19, 2000 at 23:56:39, Robert Hyatt wrote: >> >>>On April 19, 2000 at 23:39:03, Paulo Soares wrote: >>> >>>>On April 19, 2000 at 23:31:13, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>>> >>>>>On April 19, 2000 at 23:19:22, Drazen Marovic wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> In around 3 years Bushinsky hypothesizes no human can win in an 8 game match. >>>>>>Well If deep blue is rebuilt and upgraded then yes, oterwise no IMHO. PC comps >>>>>>will be between 2500 and 2680 for the next 8 years IMHO. >>>>>> >>>>>>"Shay Bushinsky answers >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>>The term unbeatable is a very tough word indeed. I cannot say that a computer >>>>>>will ever be unbeatable in any given game in the near future, but I do see a >>>>>>time - maybe in about three years from now, when a computer will always prevail >>>>>>in an 8 game match against the strongest human " >>>>>> >>>>>>Taken from the kasparov site >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>I also expect to see a pig flying in about 3 years, +/- 50 years. :) >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>In 10 years, this _might_ be true. I don't think in 3 years however.. >>>> >>>>Why 10 years? >>>> >>>>Paulo Soares, from Brazil >>> >>>that is about how far we are behind the hardware speed of deep blue, based on >>>classic Moore's law. It is only a wild guess... I would say 10 years at >>>least... maybe more... and only if Moore's law holds... >> >>Moore's law: "To every 18 months the processors double the speed". In 10 >>years=120 months, we will have 120/18=6 times in that the processors will >>double the speed, what means that in 10 years we will have processors with >>approximately 1Gz(actual frequency) x 2(6) = 64 Gz! >>But about the software, you don't think the development of the software will >>have a weight reasonable on these ten years? >> >>Paulo > >I think the developement of software can also help humans because there will be >better software to teach humans to play better. > >Uri I think that in the next 10 years softwares will help the humans to learn to play the chess better, but I think the main learning will be in relation to the openings. Then I believe that in ten years the programs will have a relative advantage in relation to the midlegames and endgames. Paulo
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