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Subject: Re: Ply Depth in relation to Elo again...

Author: ShaktiFire

Date: 17:03:09 05/22/00

Go up one level in this thread


On May 22, 2000 at 18:35:44, Joshua Lee wrote:
The concept of ply vs. rating is not so straightforward.
Some programs have more rigourous evaluation functions.
Some have more pruning or more extensions.  In order to
be rigourous, which in some sense you are proposing to do,
you really have to understand all the variables.  It would
be wonderful if you could do a full study on this... but
you have to eliminate all extraneous variables, have a control
in your study, so to speak.  Let me know when you got the details
worked out, step by step, so we can discuss them, cuz you aint
there yet...  :-)




>This is the problem i get juggling those numbers....
>Deeper Blue                1997   (15at a minimum)17-18 Ply  2817 (USCF)
> 200 MNPS 2.048Thz
>
>2817USCF -50 or -100   2767 or 2717FIDE  (not to get sidetracked but keep this
>in mind -107  2660 or 2610)
>
>You said DB2 is +1 ply because it is 2x Faster let's keep in mind the minimum
>Ply as well
> Deep Blue                    1996     (14Ply Min 16-17 Ply (*)14 Ply
>2642(FIDE?)
> 100 MNps 1.024Thz
>
>512Ghz would be 50MNps  and (13Ply Minimum)15 Ply so 2642-50= 2592   or -60
>=2582
>or is it -90 =2552???
>
>i could really confuse things by considering Deep Blue's Positional Strength
>as  plain and simple a Programs strength is just it's positional play (which
>isn't a fact ) people play program X but only positionally. They keep the
>position devoid of tactics...
>so let's say 2535- 50 =2485  or -60 = 2475   or is it 2445?
>
>Something tells me that this is going to end up Showing that PC's are around
>2000 which isn't the case!!
>
>what i was saying above is that i don't know that we should say programs are
>-107 or so because lack of positional strength. I got this number by not
>counting the first game of the DB1 match  Kasparov's rating at the time was 2775
>which is in itself way inflated from the 70's but that is another topic.
>I remember someone saying how if you disregarded the first game the results show
>that even at this depth the positional strength of DB was at 2535 (-107)
>
>You said : doubling the cpu speed is generally said to produce 50-60 rating
>points.Since the typical effective branching factor is around 3.0, every time
>the
>speed is tripled, we get another ply, and using the 60 point figure above,
>a ply would be about 90 rating points, roughly.  But there is nothing that
>says that as we go deeper this doesn't taper off.  Nor is there anything that
>says that as we go deeper, the gain doesn't actually get larger...
>
>Keeping your  last two sentences in mind...
>
>                                                                        -50
>    -60          -90
>2.048Thz 200 Mnps 15Ply Min  17Ply     2692     2702         2732 <---??
>
>Deeper Blue                1997   (15at a minimum)17-18 Ply  2817 (USCF)
> 200 MNPS 2.048Thz  2817USCF -50 or -100   2767 or 2717FIDE
>
>Deep Blue                    1996             16-17 Ply (*)14 Ply 2642(FIDE
>(*2535 Positional Play Strength?) 100 MNps 1.024Thz?? 32node *6 =192 processors
>1.024Thz 100 Mnps 14PlyMin   16Ply     2642     2642            2642
>512Ghz  50Mnps   13Ply Min       15Ply   2592       2582           2552
>256Ghz  25Mnps    (12Ply Min)    14Ply  2542      2522            2462
>128Ghz  12.5Mnps   (11PlyMin)   13Ply   2492     2462             2372
>
>Deep Thought II        1991                  6-7 Million Nps 64Ghz?
>
>64Ghz    6.25Mnps      (10Ply)     12Ply    2442     2402            2282
>32Ghz   3.125Mnps    (9Ply)        11Ply     2392    2342             2192
>
>Deep Thought            1989                2480-2500 (FIDE) 2 Mnps 20Ghz?*
>16Ghz  1.562.500nps    (8)           10Ply   2342     2282             2102
>8Ghz     781,250nps       (7)           9Ply     2292      2222             2012
>Deep Thought 0.02    1988     2551(USCF) 2501 or  2451(FIDE?)750KNps* 7.453Ghz
>In 1988 DEEP THOUGHT and Grandmaster Tony Miles shared first place in the U.S.
>Open championship. DEEP THOUGHT had a 2745 performance rating.
> 2745-180 = 2565?   don't you subtract 180 to get a true rating from a
>performance one?
>4Ghz     390,625nps      (6)            8Ply      2242    2162              1922
>Hitech                          1995              200KNps
>2Ghz    195,312nps         (5)           7Ply      2192    2102
>1832
>Hitech                          1988 2413(USCF) 2363 or 2313FIDE?   175 KNps
>In 1985 HITECH achieved a performace rating of 2530.  2530-180 = 2350
>
> Belle                             1983 2208         160KNps
>
>1Ghz    97,656nps           (4)            6Ply     2142    2042
>1742
> Hiarcs 7.32                  2000           98-134KNps  1Ghz
> Hiarcs 7.32                  2000 2660(LCTII)2460(FIDE est)87-123KNps 880AMD
> Belle                             1983 2208         160KNps
>
>One other thing to keep in mind is that Hiarcs looks at a Minimum of 7 usually 8
>but on average 9 or 10 sometimes 11Ply in the middlegame on my computer which is
>about 120Mhz shy of 1Gig.
> Something Tells me that Hiarcs is just a little bit stronger than 2142???
>* I swear i read that Deep Thought searched 12Ply in 1989 against Kasparov
>I don't know if this is so and my other thought is how much of a difference does
>the extensions Hiarcs gives in a position i.e if it say's that it is looking
>9/30ply
>how does that compare with Deep Blue saying it is looking 16Ply?
>anotherwords in the same position is 16 Hiarcs ply the same as 16 Deep Blue ply
>maybe that is the key to the differences in the list above.
>thankyou



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