Author: Ed Schröder
Date: 21:32:30 05/24/00
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On May 24, 2000 at 18:05:24, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On May 24, 2000 at 10:28:57, Oliver Roese wrote: > >>Hi all! >> >>This question is about pondering during the opponents time... >>Crafty does the following: >>It predicts the oppononts move, assuming "optimal" play and then starts to >>work until the opponent moves. >>If it predicts the opponents move correctly it has a great edge, otherwise >>only some hashtableentries. >>If it wouldnt predict the opponents move it would gain a small contribution to >>_every_ move. >>Obviously the better it predicts the opponents move, the better is the first >>method. > >Point 1. Against strong opposition, it correctly predicts about 50% of >the time, roughly. Which is not terribly surprising... I have build-in a counter that displays the percentage of predicted moves. For Rebel that is typically 55-59% against all kind of other programs. Impossible to beat I would say. Ed >>From my experience as a mere chessplayer i would say the following: >>-Predicting the opponents move is very difficult even in games of the >>highest value (disregarding trivial cases and extraordinary circumstances). >>-Intuitively i would judge a small contribution to every move as more >>worthfully than an extremly big one that occurs seldomly >>To say it exaggerated: If you have 20 moves to made and distribute >>your resources evenly, you may have a chance. If you invest all in the first >>move, making the other 19 moves very bad, you are dead for sure. >>In more general terms: >>The relative benefit of predicted moves decreases rapidly with increasing >>searchdepth, i think. >> >>Maybe one could use a hybrid approach? >>What is the reason to having this in crafty? > >Easy. At present, about 1/2 of the time it correctly predicts the opponent's >move, and can make a move using little of its own time. saving about 1/2 of >the total time. How would you improve on that? If you pick the best 4 moves, >and searched them equally (during pondering) then after your opponent moves, >you have spent 1/4 of the normal time on the move he played. You save 25%. >25% is < 50%. If you pick the best 2, you could save 50% total. Which is >what it is already saving. > > > >>Thanks in advance for any input and giving me some of your time. >> >>Oliver Roese
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