Author: Ralf Elvsén
Date: 22:23:34 06/05/00
Go up one level in this thread
On June 06, 2000 at 01:13:49, Jouni Uski wrote: >On June 05, 2000 at 21:58:33, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >>On June 05, 2000 at 21:10:03, Wayne Lowrance wrote: >> >>>On June 05, 2000 at 02:39:35, blass uri wrote: >>> >>>>On June 05, 2000 at 02:33:01, Jeremiah Penery wrote: >>>> >>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 02:17:57, Jouni Uski wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>Look at this: >>>>>> >>>>>>Junior 6 1111½0½111101½1½11½1½1½111101101111111111 33.5/41 >>>>>>Crafty 17.07 0000½1½000010½0½00½0½0½000010010000000000 7.5/41 >>>>>>Note 10 lost games in row. This result indicates 260 rating points difference. >>>>>>May be SSDF should update to 17.10 soon! >>>>>> >>>>>>Jouni >>>>> >>>>>I thought they did. As far as I ever saw in the posted SSDF games/results, >>>>>Junior6 was never very much ahead of Crafty in the match... >>>> >>>>The games that were posted were between Fritz6 and Crafty and not between >>>>Junior6 and Crafty and it was also with Crafty17.07 >>>> >>>>Uri >>>This does not make sense. Crafty hangs tough with Fritz, Junior kills crafty and >>>Junior and fritz are very close. With that many games played I would not expect >>>to see that result for crafty. Crafty is a hell of a program and Junior is not >>>that superior unless played at fast time controls where crafty falls short of >>>the commercials (that evaluation is mine, Dr Bob may disagree). >>>Wayne >> >>No. I have always agreed that it is not doing as well in blitz as it is doing >>at longer time controls. >> >>I am concerned about a 10-0 run, because I simply don't see nor expect that >>against my program, or against any other program. It suggests that something >>has either gotten corrupted, the opening is not being controlled by book >>learning, or something else. I'll try to look when I have time, but it sure >>looks odd... >> >>And then again, it could be perfectly correct for all I know. > >I made small calculation: In SSDF Junior is 65 points better than Crafty, so it >can except 0.592 points/game. This means that probability for 10 in row is > 10 >0.592 = 0.005 i.e. 0,5% so it's not impossible, but happens only once in >190 try. > >Jouni The number 0.592 is based on wins and draws. If we have (say) 30% of the games ending in draws, the number should be changed to 0.592 - 0.3*1/2 = 0.442, and 0.442^10 = 0.00028. No big deal though. Ralf
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