Author: Jorge
Date: 11:20:18 06/06/00
Go up one level in this thread
On June 06, 2000 at 01:23:34, Ralf Elvsén wrote: >On June 06, 2000 at 01:13:49, Jouni Uski wrote: > >>On June 05, 2000 at 21:58:33, Robert Hyatt wrote: >> >>>On June 05, 2000 at 21:10:03, Wayne Lowrance wrote: >>> >>>>On June 05, 2000 at 02:39:35, blass uri wrote: >>>> >>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 02:33:01, Jeremiah Penery wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 02:17:57, Jouni Uski wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>>Look at this: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>Junior 6 1111½0½111101½1½11½1½1½111101101111111111 33.5/41 >>>>>>>Crafty 17.07 0000½1½000010½0½00½0½0½000010010000000000 7.5/41 >>>>>>>Note 10 lost games in row. This result indicates 260 rating points difference. >>>>>>>May be SSDF should update to 17.10 soon! >>>>>>> >>>>>>>Jouni >>>>>> >>>>>>I thought they did. As far as I ever saw in the posted SSDF games/results, >>>>>>Junior6 was never very much ahead of Crafty in the match... >>>>> >>>>>The games that were posted were between Fritz6 and Crafty and not between >>>>>Junior6 and Crafty and it was also with Crafty17.07 >>>>> >>>>>Uri >>>>This does not make sense. Crafty hangs tough with Fritz, Junior kills crafty and >>>>Junior and fritz are very close. With that many games played I would not expect >>>>to see that result for crafty. Crafty is a hell of a program and Junior is not >>>>that superior unless played at fast time controls where crafty falls short of >>>>the commercials (that evaluation is mine, Dr Bob may disagree). >>>>Wayne >>> >>>No. I have always agreed that it is not doing as well in blitz as it is doing >>>at longer time controls. >>> >>>I am concerned about a 10-0 run, because I simply don't see nor expect that >>>against my program, or against any other program. It suggests that something >>>has either gotten corrupted, the opening is not being controlled by book >>>learning, or something else. I'll try to look when I have time, but it sure >>>looks odd... >>> >>>And then again, it could be perfectly correct for all I know. >> >>I made small calculation: In SSDF Junior is 65 points better than Crafty, so it >>can except 0.592 points/game. This means that probability for 10 in row is >> 10 >>0.592 = 0.005 i.e. 0,5% so it's not impossible, but happens only once in >>190 try. >> >>Jouni > >The number 0.592 is based on wins and draws. If we have (say) 30% of >the games ending in draws, the number should be changed to >0.592 - 0.3*1/2 = 0.442, and 0.442^10 = 0.00028. No big deal though. > >Ralf Ralf, I'm trying to follow what you are saying about the probabilities, but something is wrong here. If 0.592 is approx. true for both wins and draws, then the P(Junior does not loose in 10 or more) much < .005, actually < 0.005*2=0.000025 (since it happened twice in one event) which is a big deal!
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