Author: Jorge
Date: 21:34:01 06/06/00
Go up one level in this thread
On June 06, 2000 at 15:16:03, blass uri wrote: >On June 06, 2000 at 14:20:18, Jorge wrote: > >>On June 06, 2000 at 01:23:34, Ralf Elvsén wrote: >> >>>On June 06, 2000 at 01:13:49, Jouni Uski wrote: >>> >>>>On June 05, 2000 at 21:58:33, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>>> >>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 21:10:03, Wayne Lowrance wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 02:39:35, blass uri wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 02:33:01, Jeremiah Penery wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 02:17:57, Jouni Uski wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>Look at this: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>Junior 6 1111½0½111101½1½11½1½1½111101101111111111 33.5/41 >>>>>>>>>Crafty 17.07 0000½1½000010½0½00½0½0½000010010000000000 7.5/41 >>>>>>>>>Note 10 lost games in row. This result indicates 260 rating points difference. >>>>>>>>>May be SSDF should update to 17.10 soon! >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>Jouni >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>I thought they did. As far as I ever saw in the posted SSDF games/results, >>>>>>>>Junior6 was never very much ahead of Crafty in the match... >>>>>>> >>>>>>>The games that were posted were between Fritz6 and Crafty and not between >>>>>>>Junior6 and Crafty and it was also with Crafty17.07 >>>>>>> >>>>>>>Uri >>>>>>This does not make sense. Crafty hangs tough with Fritz, Junior kills crafty and >>>>>>Junior and fritz are very close. With that many games played I would not expect >>>>>>to see that result for crafty. Crafty is a hell of a program and Junior is not >>>>>>that superior unless played at fast time controls where crafty falls short of >>>>>>the commercials (that evaluation is mine, Dr Bob may disagree). >>>>>>Wayne >>>>> >>>>>No. I have always agreed that it is not doing as well in blitz as it is doing >>>>>at longer time controls. >>>>> >>>>>I am concerned about a 10-0 run, because I simply don't see nor expect that >>>>>against my program, or against any other program. It suggests that something >>>>>has either gotten corrupted, the opening is not being controlled by book >>>>>learning, or something else. I'll try to look when I have time, but it sure >>>>>looks odd... >>>>> >>>>>And then again, it could be perfectly correct for all I know. >>>> >>>>I made small calculation: In SSDF Junior is 65 points better than Crafty, so it >>>>can except 0.592 points/game. This means that probability for 10 in row is >>>> 10 >>>>0.592 = 0.005 i.e. 0,5% so it's not impossible, but happens only once in >>>>190 try. >>>> >>>>Jouni >>> >>>The number 0.592 is based on wins and draws. If we have (say) 30% of >>>the games ending in draws, the number should be changed to >>>0.592 - 0.3*1/2 = 0.442, and 0.442^10 = 0.00028. No big deal though. >>> >>>Ralf >> >>Ralf, I'm trying to follow what you are saying about the probabilities, but >>something is wrong here. If 0.592 is approx. true for both wins and draws, then >>the P(Junior does not loose in 10 or more) much < .005, actually < >>0.005*2=0.000025 (since it happened twice in one event) which is a big deal! > >0.005*2=0.01 so I understand that you mean 0.005*0.005 and I use 0.005^2 for >this number. >I do not understand how do you get 0.005^2 > >0.442 is the probability for Junior to win one game(assuming 30% draws and >expected result 0.592 in one game) so 0.442^10=0.00028 is the probability to win >10 games in a row. > >This assumption ignores the fact that the probability to win with white is not >the same as the probability to win with black and it also ignores the fact that >the events are dependable because of learning. > >learning can make the probability bigger because it is possible that after >enough games one program is going to start to win every game by repeating the >same opening when the other side's book is not big enough to avoid repeating the >same opening. > >The probability is also bigger because the match is of 41 games so the >probability to win 10 games in a row in the match is bigger than the probability >to win 10:0 in a match of 10 games >Uri Yes, I'm assuming randomness and independence which is a big factor, however i believe the Prob. of W is about the same as prob. of B winning in the long run and that the variabilty is the same for both colors. Assuming Ralph's original calculations is somewhat true, P(Junior=Win or Draw)=0.592, then the P(Junior Wins or Drws =37 out of n=41 total games)= 41C37(.59)^37*(.41)^4= 0.0000095 (C is Combination), which means this event approximately happens 1 in 105,000 trials! But listen, you dont need to calculate anything to "sense" there is something wrong here with the above games, which weighs heavily into Junior's favor.
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