Author: blass uri
Date: 23:03:35 06/06/00
Go up one level in this thread
On June 07, 2000 at 00:34:01, Jorge wrote: >On June 06, 2000 at 15:16:03, blass uri wrote: > >>On June 06, 2000 at 14:20:18, Jorge wrote: >> >>>On June 06, 2000 at 01:23:34, Ralf Elvsén wrote: >>> >>>>On June 06, 2000 at 01:13:49, Jouni Uski wrote: >>>> >>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 21:58:33, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 21:10:03, Wayne Lowrance wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 02:39:35, blass uri wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 02:33:01, Jeremiah Penery wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 02:17:57, Jouni Uski wrote: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>Look at this: >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>Junior 6 1111½0½111101½1½11½1½1½111101101111111111 33.5/41 >>>>>>>>>>Crafty 17.07 0000½1½000010½0½00½0½0½000010010000000000 7.5/41 >>>>>>>>>>Note 10 lost games in row. This result indicates 260 rating points difference. >>>>>>>>>>May be SSDF should update to 17.10 soon! >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>Jouni >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>I thought they did. As far as I ever saw in the posted SSDF games/results, >>>>>>>>>Junior6 was never very much ahead of Crafty in the match... >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>The games that were posted were between Fritz6 and Crafty and not between >>>>>>>>Junior6 and Crafty and it was also with Crafty17.07 >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Uri >>>>>>>This does not make sense. Crafty hangs tough with Fritz, Junior kills crafty and >>>>>>>Junior and fritz are very close. With that many games played I would not expect >>>>>>>to see that result for crafty. Crafty is a hell of a program and Junior is not >>>>>>>that superior unless played at fast time controls where crafty falls short of >>>>>>>the commercials (that evaluation is mine, Dr Bob may disagree). >>>>>>>Wayne >>>>>> >>>>>>No. I have always agreed that it is not doing as well in blitz as it is doing >>>>>>at longer time controls. >>>>>> >>>>>>I am concerned about a 10-0 run, because I simply don't see nor expect that >>>>>>against my program, or against any other program. It suggests that something >>>>>>has either gotten corrupted, the opening is not being controlled by book >>>>>>learning, or something else. I'll try to look when I have time, but it sure >>>>>>looks odd... >>>>>> >>>>>>And then again, it could be perfectly correct for all I know. >>>>> >>>>>I made small calculation: In SSDF Junior is 65 points better than Crafty, so it >>>>>can except 0.592 points/game. This means that probability for 10 in row is >>>>> 10 >>>>>0.592 = 0.005 i.e. 0,5% so it's not impossible, but happens only once in >>>>>190 try. >>>>> >>>>>Jouni >>>> >>>>The number 0.592 is based on wins and draws. If we have (say) 30% of >>>>the games ending in draws, the number should be changed to >>>>0.592 - 0.3*1/2 = 0.442, and 0.442^10 = 0.00028. No big deal though. >>>> >>>>Ralf >>> >>>Ralf, I'm trying to follow what you are saying about the probabilities, but >>>something is wrong here. If 0.592 is approx. true for both wins and draws, then >>>the P(Junior does not loose in 10 or more) much < .005, actually < >>>0.005*2=0.000025 (since it happened twice in one event) which is a big deal! >> >>0.005*2=0.01 so I understand that you mean 0.005*0.005 and I use 0.005^2 for >>this number. >>I do not understand how do you get 0.005^2 >> >>0.442 is the probability for Junior to win one game(assuming 30% draws and >>expected result 0.592 in one game) so 0.442^10=0.00028 is the probability to win >>10 games in a row. >> >>This assumption ignores the fact that the probability to win with white is not >>the same as the probability to win with black and it also ignores the fact that >>the events are dependable because of learning. >> >>learning can make the probability bigger because it is possible that after >>enough games one program is going to start to win every game by repeating the >>same opening when the other side's book is not big enough to avoid repeating the >>same opening. >> >>The probability is also bigger because the match is of 41 games so the >>probability to win 10 games in a row in the match is bigger than the probability >>to win 10:0 in a match of 10 games >>Uri > > >Yes, I'm assuming randomness and independence which is a big factor, however i >believe the Prob. of W is about the same as prob. of B winning in the long run >and that the variabilty is the same for both colors. Assuming Ralph's original >calculations is somewhat true, P(Junior=Win or Draw)=0.592, then the P(Junior >Wins or Drws =37 out of n=41 total games)= 41C37(.59)^37*(.41)^4= 0.0000095 (C >is Combination), which means this event approximately happens 1 in 105,000 >trials! But listen, you dont need to calculate anything to "sense" there is >something wrong here with the above games, which weighs heavily into Junior's >favor. I do not know if there is something wrong with the games. There is a mistake in your calculations. The assumption P(Junior=win or draw)=0.592 is wrong. The assumption was that o.592 is the expected result in one game and not p(Junior wins or draw) If p(Junior draw)=0.3 then P(Junior wins)=0.442 then p(Junior wins or draws)=0.742 by this assumption. Uri
This page took 0 seconds to execute
Last modified: Thu, 15 Apr 21 08:11:13 -0700
Current Computer Chess Club Forums at Talkchess. This site by Sean Mintz.