Author: blass uri
Date: 09:03:30 06/07/00
Go up one level in this thread
On June 07, 2000 at 10:52:39, Jorge wrote: >On June 07, 2000 at 04:15:50, Ralf Elvsén wrote: > >>On June 07, 2000 at 02:03:35, blass uri wrote: >> >>>On June 07, 2000 at 00:34:01, Jorge wrote: >>> >>>>On June 06, 2000 at 15:16:03, blass uri wrote: >>>> >>>>>On June 06, 2000 at 14:20:18, Jorge wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>On June 06, 2000 at 01:23:34, Ralf Elvsén wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>>On June 06, 2000 at 01:13:49, Jouni Uski wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 21:58:33, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 21:10:03, Wayne Lowrance wrote: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 02:39:35, blass uri wrote: >>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 02:33:01, Jeremiah Penery wrote: >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>On June 05, 2000 at 02:17:57, Jouni Uski wrote: >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>Look at this: >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>Junior 6 1111½0½111101½1½11½1½1½111101101111111111 33.5/41 >>>>>>>>>>>>>Crafty 17.07 0000½1½000010½0½00½0½0½000010010000000000 7.5/41 >>>>>>>>>>>>>Note 10 lost games in row. This result indicates 260 rating points difference. >>>>>>>>>>>>>May be SSDF should update to 17.10 soon! >>>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>>Jouni >>>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>>I thought they did. As far as I ever saw in the posted SSDF games/results, >>>>>>>>>>>>Junior6 was never very much ahead of Crafty in the match... >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>The games that were posted were between Fritz6 and Crafty and not between >>>>>>>>>>>Junior6 and Crafty and it was also with Crafty17.07 >>>>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>>>Uri >>>>>>>>>>This does not make sense. Crafty hangs tough with Fritz, Junior kills crafty and >>>>>>>>>>Junior and fritz are very close. With that many games played I would not expect >>>>>>>>>>to see that result for crafty. Crafty is a hell of a program and Junior is not >>>>>>>>>>that superior unless played at fast time controls where crafty falls short of >>>>>>>>>>the commercials (that evaluation is mine, Dr Bob may disagree). >>>>>>>>>>Wayne >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>No. I have always agreed that it is not doing as well in blitz as it is doing >>>>>>>>>at longer time controls. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>I am concerned about a 10-0 run, because I simply don't see nor expect that >>>>>>>>>against my program, or against any other program. It suggests that something >>>>>>>>>has either gotten corrupted, the opening is not being controlled by book >>>>>>>>>learning, or something else. I'll try to look when I have time, but it sure >>>>>>>>>looks odd... >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>>And then again, it could be perfectly correct for all I know. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>I made small calculation: In SSDF Junior is 65 points better than Crafty, so it >>>>>>>>can except 0.592 points/game. This means that probability for 10 in row is >>>>>>>> 10 >>>>>>>>0.592 = 0.005 i.e. 0,5% so it's not impossible, but happens only once in >>>>>>>>190 try. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Jouni >>>>>>> >>>>>>>The number 0.592 is based on wins and draws. If we have (say) 30% of >>>>>>>the games ending in draws, the number should be changed to >>>>>>>0.592 - 0.3*1/2 = 0.442, and 0.442^10 = 0.00028. No big deal though. >>>>>>> >>>>>>>Ralf >>>>>> >>>>>>Ralf, I'm trying to follow what you are saying about the probabilities, but >>>>>>something is wrong here. If 0.592 is approx. true for both wins and draws, then >>>>>>the P(Junior does not loose in 10 or more) much < .005, actually < >>>>>>0.005*2=0.000025 (since it happened twice in one event) which is a big deal! >>>>> >>>>>0.005*2=0.01 so I understand that you mean 0.005*0.005 and I use 0.005^2 for >>>>>this number. >>>>>I do not understand how do you get 0.005^2 >>>>> >>>>>0.442 is the probability for Junior to win one game(assuming 30% draws and >>>>>expected result 0.592 in one game) so 0.442^10=0.00028 is the probability to win >>>>>10 games in a row. >>>>> >>>>>This assumption ignores the fact that the probability to win with white is not >>>>>the same as the probability to win with black and it also ignores the fact that >>>>>the events are dependable because of learning. >>>>> >>>>>learning can make the probability bigger because it is possible that after >>>>>enough games one program is going to start to win every game by repeating the >>>>>same opening when the other side's book is not big enough to avoid repeating the >>>>>same opening. >>>>> >>>>>The probability is also bigger because the match is of 41 games so the >>>>>probability to win 10 games in a row in the match is bigger than the probability >>>>>to win 10:0 in a match of 10 games >>>>>Uri >>>> >>>> >>>>Yes, I'm assuming randomness and independence which is a big factor, however i >>>>believe the Prob. of W is about the same as prob. of B winning in the long run >>>>and that the variabilty is the same for both colors. Assuming Ralph's original >>>>calculations is somewhat true, P(Junior=Win or Draw)=0.592, then the P(Junior >>>>Wins or Drws =37 out of n=41 total games)= 41C37(.59)^37*(.41)^4= 0.0000095 (C >>>>is Combination), which means this event approximately happens 1 in 105,000 >>>>trials! But listen, you dont need to calculate anything to "sense" there is >>>>something wrong here with the above games, which weighs heavily into Junior's >>>>favor. >>> >>>I do not know if there is something wrong with the games. >>>There is a mistake in your calculations. >>> >>>The assumption P(Junior=win or draw)=0.592 is wrong. >>>The assumption was that o.592 is the expected result in one game and not >>>p(Junior wins or draw) >>> >>>If p(Junior draw)=0.3 then P(Junior wins)=0.442 then >>>p(Junior wins or draws)=0.742 by this assumption. >>> >>>Uri >> >>Yes, and Jorge, as I understand it you wanted to calculate the probability of >>getting exactly 37 non-losses and 4 losses out of 41 games. This in itself >>is a rather special result. I looked in a table and 33.5/41 indicates >>a rating difference of 260 points. The question should perhaps be put >>"What is the probability to get a performance rating difference of >>at least 260 points in 41 games, given that the "true" rating >>difference is 65 points?" >> >>Making assumptions about the rate of draws and neglecting the complicating >>factors Uri mentioned, this can be worked out, but I don't have the time >>right now. >> >>Ralf (not Ralph :) > >My apologies for changing your name Ralf :). Yes I agree, this is what we wanted >to hypothesize. True, my calculations is based on that special event (little >rusty on Statistics, but its coming back slowly), however if we add the rest of >the probabilities from 37 to 41 (w+ds), the amount practically negligible, as >you probably already know. Uri thx for the help, but the .592 was based >originally on Ralf's rate on BOTH Wins and Draws in the beginning. Dont know if >the drawing rate is 0.30 in this case. Quote "The number 0.592 is based on wins >and draws". "The number 0.592 is based on wins and draws" does not mean that 0.592 of the games are wins or draws. It means if we assume 30% draws that 0.442 of the games are wins for Junior and 0.3 of the games are draws so you get 0.442+0.3*0.5=0.592 Uri
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