Author: blass uri
Date: 13:10:16 06/08/00
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On June 08, 2000 at 15:25:22, Amir Ban wrote: >Ok, here's my two cents: > >The most likely estimate for the game outcome is the overall match result >(33.5/41). The probability for any *particular* sequence of 10 games (say the >last 10) to be 10-0 is (33.5/41)^10 = 13.3%. > >If you want probability for any sequence anywhere, the probability is larger, as >you point out. > >If you suspect the 10-0 result, you can argue that the most likely estimate >should discount this result, so this gives you a probability of (23.5/31)^10 = >6.3%. If you use the most likely estimate The probability for 10:0 is smaller than (23.5/31)^10 because there are draws. The result was +20, =7.-4 so if you use the most likely estimate you get probability (20/31) for Junior to win 7/31 for a draw and 4/31 for a loss (20/31)^10=0.012493... so the probability is less than 2% I ignored the fact that the white probability is different from the black probability but not ignoring it does not change much the result because you get: (10/15)^5*(10/16)^5 that is 0.012558... If you do not ignore the last 10 games and ignore the colours you get (30/41)^10=0.043992... Uri
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