Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 17:46:47 06/08/00
Go up one level in this thread
On June 08, 2000 at 16:10:16, blass uri wrote: >On June 08, 2000 at 15:25:22, Amir Ban wrote: > >>Ok, here's my two cents: >> >>The most likely estimate for the game outcome is the overall match result >>(33.5/41). The probability for any *particular* sequence of 10 games (say the >>last 10) to be 10-0 is (33.5/41)^10 = 13.3%. >> >>If you want probability for any sequence anywhere, the probability is larger, as >>you point out. >> >>If you suspect the 10-0 result, you can argue that the most likely estimate >>should discount this result, so this gives you a probability of (23.5/31)^10 = >>6.3%. > >If you use the most likely estimate >The probability for 10:0 is smaller than (23.5/31)^10 because there are draws. > >The result was +20, =7.-4 so if you use the most likely estimate you get >probability (20/31) for Junior to win >7/31 for a draw and 4/31 for a loss > >(20/31)^10=0.012493... so the probability is less than 2% > >I ignored the fact that the white probability is different from the black >probability but not ignoring it does not change much the result because you get: > >(10/15)^5*(10/16)^5 that is 0.012558... > >If you do not ignore the last 10 games and ignore the colours you get >(30/41)^10=0.043992... > >Uri The thing I am most concerned about is multiple consecutive games. I don't do _any_ testing by having crafty play multiple games. All of my playing is done where for each game, the engine is started completely over. It is more than possible that _if_ a series of games are played with the same version, that something bad could happen: (1) something might not get reset properly; (b) a bug might actually clobber something that will then stay clobbered for many games. I will try to do some testing on this to see if everything seems to be working right... but I am definitely concerned that just sending a "new" to start a new game could cause problems...
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