Author: Amir Ban
Date: 12:18:01 06/09/00
Go up one level in this thread
On June 09, 2000 at 10:33:33, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On June 09, 2000 at 06:26:17, Amir Ban wrote: > >>On June 08, 2000 at 16:10:16, blass uri wrote: >> >>>On June 08, 2000 at 15:25:22, Amir Ban wrote: >>> >>>>Ok, here's my two cents: >>>> >>>>The most likely estimate for the game outcome is the overall match result >>>>(33.5/41). The probability for any *particular* sequence of 10 games (say the >>>>last 10) to be 10-0 is (33.5/41)^10 = 13.3%. >>>> >>>>If you want probability for any sequence anywhere, the probability is larger, as >>>>you point out. >>>> >>>>If you suspect the 10-0 result, you can argue that the most likely estimate >>>>should discount this result, so this gives you a probability of (23.5/31)^10 = >>>>6.3%. >>> >>>If you use the most likely estimate >>>The probability for 10:0 is smaller than (23.5/31)^10 because there are draws. >>> >>>The result was +20, =7.-4 so if you use the most likely estimate you get >>>probability (20/31) for Junior to win >>>7/31 for a draw and 4/31 for a loss >>> >>>(20/31)^10=0.012493... so the probability is less than 2% >>> >>>I ignored the fact that the white probability is different from the black >>>probability but not ignoring it does not change much the result because you get: >>> >>>(10/15)^5*(10/16)^5 that is 0.012558... >>> >>>If you do not ignore the last 10 games and ignore the colours you get >>>(30/41)^10=0.043992... >>> >>>Uri >> >>All right, you are right about the draws. >> >>My presentation of the problem was more complicated than necessary. Here is the >>question in its simplest form: >> >>A match of 41 games concluded with 30 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses. It is unknown >>in which order these wins/draws/losses occurred. >> >>Out of all possible permutations with the same result, what percent of the >>permutations have a sequence of at least 10 wins ? >> >>This is clear cut question for the combinatorics gurus in this newsgroup. >> >>There seems to be gross difference of opinion about the result of this, so until >>we get an answer, we can have an opinion poll about the result. >> >>My guess: 40%. >> >>Amir > > >As I mentioned before, I am simply worried that reusing the engine over and >over might be the problem. IE if you just crank up two copies of crafty and >let 'em play, over and over, if one breaks, it will remain broken and will >likely lose every game (or nearly every game) from that point forward. > >Since I don't test like this, it is very possible... > >And that would explain a sudden string of 0's at the end... and it would >explain things if the 0's stop after a restart or another tester plays games, >since he would start a new crafty. Of course, that is a possible explanation for this otherwise incredible result. Another possible explanation is that there is a bug in Junior that something doesn't reset correctly and the engine starts playing stronger than intended, and wins every game. I definitely need to look into that. Amir
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