Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 20:17:12 06/09/00
Go up one level in this thread
On June 09, 2000 at 15:18:01, Amir Ban wrote: >On June 09, 2000 at 10:33:33, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >>On June 09, 2000 at 06:26:17, Amir Ban wrote: >> >>>On June 08, 2000 at 16:10:16, blass uri wrote: >>> >>>>On June 08, 2000 at 15:25:22, Amir Ban wrote: >>>> >>>>>Ok, here's my two cents: >>>>> >>>>>The most likely estimate for the game outcome is the overall match result >>>>>(33.5/41). The probability for any *particular* sequence of 10 games (say the >>>>>last 10) to be 10-0 is (33.5/41)^10 = 13.3%. >>>>> >>>>>If you want probability for any sequence anywhere, the probability is larger, as >>>>>you point out. >>>>> >>>>>If you suspect the 10-0 result, you can argue that the most likely estimate >>>>>should discount this result, so this gives you a probability of (23.5/31)^10 = >>>>>6.3%. >>>> >>>>If you use the most likely estimate >>>>The probability for 10:0 is smaller than (23.5/31)^10 because there are draws. >>>> >>>>The result was +20, =7.-4 so if you use the most likely estimate you get >>>>probability (20/31) for Junior to win >>>>7/31 for a draw and 4/31 for a loss >>>> >>>>(20/31)^10=0.012493... so the probability is less than 2% >>>> >>>>I ignored the fact that the white probability is different from the black >>>>probability but not ignoring it does not change much the result because you get: >>>> >>>>(10/15)^5*(10/16)^5 that is 0.012558... >>>> >>>>If you do not ignore the last 10 games and ignore the colours you get >>>>(30/41)^10=0.043992... >>>> >>>>Uri >>> >>>All right, you are right about the draws. >>> >>>My presentation of the problem was more complicated than necessary. Here is the >>>question in its simplest form: >>> >>>A match of 41 games concluded with 30 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses. It is unknown >>>in which order these wins/draws/losses occurred. >>> >>>Out of all possible permutations with the same result, what percent of the >>>permutations have a sequence of at least 10 wins ? >>> >>>This is clear cut question for the combinatorics gurus in this newsgroup. >>> >>>There seems to be gross difference of opinion about the result of this, so until >>>we get an answer, we can have an opinion poll about the result. >>> >>>My guess: 40%. >>> >>>Amir >> >> >>As I mentioned before, I am simply worried that reusing the engine over and >>over might be the problem. IE if you just crank up two copies of crafty and >>let 'em play, over and over, if one breaks, it will remain broken and will >>likely lose every game (or nearly every game) from that point forward. >> >>Since I don't test like this, it is very possible... >> >>And that would explain a sudden string of 0's at the end... and it would >>explain things if the 0's stop after a restart or another tester plays games, >>since he would start a new crafty. > >Of course, that is a possible explanation for this otherwise incredible result. > >Another possible explanation is that there is a bug in Junior that something >doesn't reset correctly and the engine starts playing stronger than intended, >and wins every game. I definitely need to look into that. > >Amir Perhaps while you are looking, you can look into losing the sarcasm? eh?
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