Author: Amir Ban
Date: 01:03:07 06/10/00
Go up one level in this thread
On June 09, 2000 at 23:17:44, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On June 09, 2000 at 15:18:01, Amir Ban wrote: > >>On June 09, 2000 at 10:33:33, Robert Hyatt wrote: >> >>>On June 09, 2000 at 06:26:17, Amir Ban wrote: >>> >>>>On June 08, 2000 at 16:10:16, blass uri wrote: >>>> >>>>>On June 08, 2000 at 15:25:22, Amir Ban wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>Ok, here's my two cents: >>>>>> >>>>>>The most likely estimate for the game outcome is the overall match result >>>>>>(33.5/41). The probability for any *particular* sequence of 10 games (say the >>>>>>last 10) to be 10-0 is (33.5/41)^10 = 13.3%. >>>>>> >>>>>>If you want probability for any sequence anywhere, the probability is larger, as >>>>>>you point out. >>>>>> >>>>>>If you suspect the 10-0 result, you can argue that the most likely estimate >>>>>>should discount this result, so this gives you a probability of (23.5/31)^10 = >>>>>>6.3%. >>>>> >>>>>If you use the most likely estimate >>>>>The probability for 10:0 is smaller than (23.5/31)^10 because there are draws. >>>>> >>>>>The result was +20, =7.-4 so if you use the most likely estimate you get >>>>>probability (20/31) for Junior to win >>>>>7/31 for a draw and 4/31 for a loss >>>>> >>>>>(20/31)^10=0.012493... so the probability is less than 2% >>>>> >>>>>I ignored the fact that the white probability is different from the black >>>>>probability but not ignoring it does not change much the result because you get: >>>>> >>>>>(10/15)^5*(10/16)^5 that is 0.012558... >>>>> >>>>>If you do not ignore the last 10 games and ignore the colours you get >>>>>(30/41)^10=0.043992... >>>>> >>>>>Uri >>>> >>>>All right, you are right about the draws. >>>> >>>>My presentation of the problem was more complicated than necessary. Here is the >>>>question in its simplest form: >>>> >>>>A match of 41 games concluded with 30 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses. It is unknown >>>>in which order these wins/draws/losses occurred. >>>> >>>>Out of all possible permutations with the same result, what percent of the >>>>permutations have a sequence of at least 10 wins ? >>>> >>>>This is clear cut question for the combinatorics gurus in this newsgroup. >>>> >>>>There seems to be gross difference of opinion about the result of this, so until >>>>we get an answer, we can have an opinion poll about the result. >>>> >>>>My guess: 40%. >>>> >>>>Amir >>> >>> >>>As I mentioned before, I am simply worried that reusing the engine over and >>>over might be the problem. IE if you just crank up two copies of crafty and >>>let 'em play, over and over, if one breaks, it will remain broken and will >>>likely lose every game (or nearly every game) from that point forward. >>> >>>Since I don't test like this, it is very possible... >>> >>>And that would explain a sudden string of 0's at the end... and it would >>>explain things if the 0's stop after a restart or another tester plays games, >>>since he would start a new crafty. >> >>Of course, that is a possible explanation for this otherwise incredible result. >> >>Another possible explanation is that there is a bug in Junior that something >>doesn't reset correctly and the engine starts playing stronger than intended, >>and wins every game. I definitely need to look into that. >> >>Amir > > >Perhaps while you are looking, you can look into losing the sarcasm? > >eh? > >I don't ever recall you going 10-0 vs crafty on ICC. It's not easy to do this while being censored. Not to mention being noplayed after 4 consecutive games. Amir > So _something_ is >definitely "up".
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