Author: Robert Hyatt
Date: 05:28:07 06/10/00
Go up one level in this thread
On June 10, 2000 at 04:03:07, Amir Ban wrote: >On June 09, 2000 at 23:17:44, Robert Hyatt wrote: > >>On June 09, 2000 at 15:18:01, Amir Ban wrote: >> >>>On June 09, 2000 at 10:33:33, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>> >>>>On June 09, 2000 at 06:26:17, Amir Ban wrote: >>>> >>>>>On June 08, 2000 at 16:10:16, blass uri wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>On June 08, 2000 at 15:25:22, Amir Ban wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>>Ok, here's my two cents: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>The most likely estimate for the game outcome is the overall match result >>>>>>>(33.5/41). The probability for any *particular* sequence of 10 games (say the >>>>>>>last 10) to be 10-0 is (33.5/41)^10 = 13.3%. >>>>>>> >>>>>>>If you want probability for any sequence anywhere, the probability is larger, as >>>>>>>you point out. >>>>>>> >>>>>>>If you suspect the 10-0 result, you can argue that the most likely estimate >>>>>>>should discount this result, so this gives you a probability of (23.5/31)^10 = >>>>>>>6.3%. >>>>>> >>>>>>If you use the most likely estimate >>>>>>The probability for 10:0 is smaller than (23.5/31)^10 because there are draws. >>>>>> >>>>>>The result was +20, =7.-4 so if you use the most likely estimate you get >>>>>>probability (20/31) for Junior to win >>>>>>7/31 for a draw and 4/31 for a loss >>>>>> >>>>>>(20/31)^10=0.012493... so the probability is less than 2% >>>>>> >>>>>>I ignored the fact that the white probability is different from the black >>>>>>probability but not ignoring it does not change much the result because you get: >>>>>> >>>>>>(10/15)^5*(10/16)^5 that is 0.012558... >>>>>> >>>>>>If you do not ignore the last 10 games and ignore the colours you get >>>>>>(30/41)^10=0.043992... >>>>>> >>>>>>Uri >>>>> >>>>>All right, you are right about the draws. >>>>> >>>>>My presentation of the problem was more complicated than necessary. Here is the >>>>>question in its simplest form: >>>>> >>>>>A match of 41 games concluded with 30 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses. It is unknown >>>>>in which order these wins/draws/losses occurred. >>>>> >>>>>Out of all possible permutations with the same result, what percent of the >>>>>permutations have a sequence of at least 10 wins ? >>>>> >>>>>This is clear cut question for the combinatorics gurus in this newsgroup. >>>>> >>>>>There seems to be gross difference of opinion about the result of this, so until >>>>>we get an answer, we can have an opinion poll about the result. >>>>> >>>>>My guess: 40%. >>>>> >>>>>Amir >>>> >>>> >>>>As I mentioned before, I am simply worried that reusing the engine over and >>>>over might be the problem. IE if you just crank up two copies of crafty and >>>>let 'em play, over and over, if one breaks, it will remain broken and will >>>>likely lose every game (or nearly every game) from that point forward. >>>> >>>>Since I don't test like this, it is very possible... >>>> >>>>And that would explain a sudden string of 0's at the end... and it would >>>>explain things if the 0's stop after a restart or another tester plays games, >>>>since he would start a new crafty. >>> >>>Of course, that is a possible explanation for this otherwise incredible result. >>> >>>Another possible explanation is that there is a bug in Junior that something >>>doesn't reset correctly and the engine starts playing stronger than intended, >>>and wins every game. I definitely need to look into that. >>> >>>Amir >> >> >>Perhaps while you are looking, you can look into losing the sarcasm? >> >>eh? >> >>I don't ever recall you going 10-0 vs crafty on ICC. > >It's not easy to do this while being censored. Not to mention being noplayed >after 4 consecutive games. > >Amir > You know very well why you were censored. You made the direct claim, here in CCC, that I specifically wrote crafty so that if it was getting mated, it would sit and run out of time rather than letting the opponent mate me. You knew that was false. I (and others) pointed out lots of games on ICC that ended in crafty getting mated without it flagging, but you _never_ retracted the ridiculous claim. If you want to try a match to see if you can go 10-0, just tell me when and where to show up. I'll be there. And as I recall, you were automatically +noplayed for lots of disconnects, not for playing 4 games in a row... This is all old news... > >> So _something_ is >>definitely "up".
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