Author: Amir Ban
Date: 14:07:14 06/10/00
Go up one level in this thread
On June 10, 2000 at 08:28:07, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On June 10, 2000 at 04:03:07, Amir Ban wrote: > >>On June 09, 2000 at 23:17:44, Robert Hyatt wrote: >> >>>On June 09, 2000 at 15:18:01, Amir Ban wrote: >>> >>>>On June 09, 2000 at 10:33:33, Robert Hyatt wrote: >>>> >>>>>On June 09, 2000 at 06:26:17, Amir Ban wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>On June 08, 2000 at 16:10:16, blass uri wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>>On June 08, 2000 at 15:25:22, Amir Ban wrote: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>>Ok, here's my two cents: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>The most likely estimate for the game outcome is the overall match result >>>>>>>>(33.5/41). The probability for any *particular* sequence of 10 games (say the >>>>>>>>last 10) to be 10-0 is (33.5/41)^10 = 13.3%. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>If you want probability for any sequence anywhere, the probability is larger, as >>>>>>>>you point out. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>If you suspect the 10-0 result, you can argue that the most likely estimate >>>>>>>>should discount this result, so this gives you a probability of (23.5/31)^10 = >>>>>>>>6.3%. >>>>>>> >>>>>>>If you use the most likely estimate >>>>>>>The probability for 10:0 is smaller than (23.5/31)^10 because there are draws. >>>>>>> >>>>>>>The result was +20, =7.-4 so if you use the most likely estimate you get >>>>>>>probability (20/31) for Junior to win >>>>>>>7/31 for a draw and 4/31 for a loss >>>>>>> >>>>>>>(20/31)^10=0.012493... so the probability is less than 2% >>>>>>> >>>>>>>I ignored the fact that the white probability is different from the black >>>>>>>probability but not ignoring it does not change much the result because you get: >>>>>>> >>>>>>>(10/15)^5*(10/16)^5 that is 0.012558... >>>>>>> >>>>>>>If you do not ignore the last 10 games and ignore the colours you get >>>>>>>(30/41)^10=0.043992... >>>>>>> >>>>>>>Uri >>>>>> >>>>>>All right, you are right about the draws. >>>>>> >>>>>>My presentation of the problem was more complicated than necessary. Here is the >>>>>>question in its simplest form: >>>>>> >>>>>>A match of 41 games concluded with 30 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses. It is unknown >>>>>>in which order these wins/draws/losses occurred. >>>>>> >>>>>>Out of all possible permutations with the same result, what percent of the >>>>>>permutations have a sequence of at least 10 wins ? >>>>>> >>>>>>This is clear cut question for the combinatorics gurus in this newsgroup. >>>>>> >>>>>>There seems to be gross difference of opinion about the result of this, so until >>>>>>we get an answer, we can have an opinion poll about the result. >>>>>> >>>>>>My guess: 40%. >>>>>> >>>>>>Amir >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>As I mentioned before, I am simply worried that reusing the engine over and >>>>>over might be the problem. IE if you just crank up two copies of crafty and >>>>>let 'em play, over and over, if one breaks, it will remain broken and will >>>>>likely lose every game (or nearly every game) from that point forward. >>>>> >>>>>Since I don't test like this, it is very possible... >>>>> >>>>>And that would explain a sudden string of 0's at the end... and it would >>>>>explain things if the 0's stop after a restart or another tester plays games, >>>>>since he would start a new crafty. >>>> >>>>Of course, that is a possible explanation for this otherwise incredible result. >>>> >>>>Another possible explanation is that there is a bug in Junior that something >>>>doesn't reset correctly and the engine starts playing stronger than intended, >>>>and wins every game. I definitely need to look into that. >>>> >>>>Amir >>> >>> >>>Perhaps while you are looking, you can look into losing the sarcasm? >>> >>>eh? >>> >>>I don't ever recall you going 10-0 vs crafty on ICC. >> >>It's not easy to do this while being censored. Not to mention being noplayed >>after 4 consecutive games. >> >>Amir >> > > >You know very well why you were censored. You made the direct claim, here in >CCC, that I specifically wrote crafty so that if it was getting mated, it would >sit and run out of time rather than letting the opponent mate me. You knew that >was false. I (and others) pointed out lots of games on ICC that ended in crafty >getting mated without it flagging, but you _never_ retracted the ridiculous >claim. > >If you want to try a match to see if you can go 10-0, just tell me when and >where to show up. I'll be there. > I think this match already took place at SSDF. This is totally nuts besides. How can you refuse to play me and challenge me at the same time ? Amir >And as I recall, you were automatically +noplayed for lots of disconnects, >not for playing 4 games in a row... This is all old news... > > > > >> >>> So _something_ is >>>definitely "up".
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