Author: Jason Williamson
Date: 02:16:36 06/12/00
Go up one level in this thread
On June 08, 2000 at 20:46:47, Robert Hyatt wrote: >On June 08, 2000 at 16:10:16, blass uri wrote: > >>On June 08, 2000 at 15:25:22, Amir Ban wrote: >> >>>Ok, here's my two cents: >>> >>>The most likely estimate for the game outcome is the overall match result >>>(33.5/41). The probability for any *particular* sequence of 10 games (say the >>>last 10) to be 10-0 is (33.5/41)^10 = 13.3%. >>> >>>If you want probability for any sequence anywhere, the probability is larger, as >>>you point out. >>> >>>If you suspect the 10-0 result, you can argue that the most likely estimate >>>should discount this result, so this gives you a probability of (23.5/31)^10 = >>>6.3%. >> >>If you use the most likely estimate >>The probability for 10:0 is smaller than (23.5/31)^10 because there are draws. >> >>The result was +20, =7.-4 so if you use the most likely estimate you get >>probability (20/31) for Junior to win >>7/31 for a draw and 4/31 for a loss >> >>(20/31)^10=0.012493... so the probability is less than 2% >> >>I ignored the fact that the white probability is different from the black >>probability but not ignoring it does not change much the result because you get: >> >>(10/15)^5*(10/16)^5 that is 0.012558... >> >>If you do not ignore the last 10 games and ignore the colours you get >>(30/41)^10=0.043992... >> >>Uri > > >The thing I am most concerned about is multiple consecutive games. I don't do >_any_ testing by having crafty play multiple games. All of my playing is done >where for each game, the engine is started completely over. It is more than >possible that _if_ a series of games are played with the same version, that >something bad could happen: (1) something might not get reset properly; (b) >a bug might actually clobber something that will then stay clobbered for many >games. > >I will try to do some testing on this to see if everything seems to be working >right... but I am definitely concerned that just sending a "new" to start a new >game could cause problems... What I am a little confused is: Isn't the SSDF list match done with the Crafty from Chessbase? As far as I know this engine is restarted before every match. Jason
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