Author: Andreas Mader
Date: 06:34:46 11/05/97
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On November 05, 1997 at 07:45:44, Chris Whittington wrote: > >On November 05, 1997 at 07:10:19, Bas Hamstra wrote: > >>[Chance best program wins tournament] >> >>>>1) With the number of rounds at the WMCC, what was the actual probablity >>>>that the best chess program would win the tournament? >>> >>>Well, I suppose that depends on how much better the best chess program >>>is compared to all the others... Let's say that the best program is >>>72 points better (this converts to a 60% chance to win each game) than >>>the other 33 entries. A quick back of the envelope calculation with >>>lots of simplifying assumptions shows that the chance of the stronger >>>program winning the tournament is about 10%, nothing like the 80% >>>you'd like. > > >Urrrgghhhhhh. What is this maths ? From Alice in Wonderland ? > >Methinks the general problem is that of chasing the holy grail of the >'strongest' program. Maybe there is no such thing ? If you find it it >runs away and becomes another version ? > >> >>Thank you. I suspect in your calculation the winner must win all games? >>That isn't necesarrily the case of course, but it gives an indication. >>Anyway I'd appreciate it if you would e-mail me the calculation. Hm, 10% >>would be no less than a lottery indeed. > >This is silly. Obviously Junior is a strong program. You can probably >say that Ananse is a weak program. > >What do you want, everything pinned down to 50 decimal places ? This is >KK mathematical logic, only allowed on rgcc :) > >Chris Whittington > Hehehe! Maybe my password for CCC will be canceled by Chris for this but I wrote a little program (with many simplifications, too) and 'played' 100.000 times a 11 round tournament with 33 equally strong programs and one with a 60 per cent win probability. In the end the 'stronger' program has the most points in 28.5 per cent of all the tournaments (many times together with at least one other program). What I have to do now is to evaluate all 34 programs with certain probabilities and write a swiss tournament manager to make this simulation even better and to please Chris.... :) Andreas "Nobody will ask in a few years if a program played 'nice games' in Paris, but maybe someone will ask for the winner."
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