Author: ShaktiFire
Date: 16:58:38 07/15/00
Go up one level in this thread
On July 15, 2000 at 19:36:14, Dann Corbit wrote: >On July 15, 2000 at 19:23:33, pete wrote: > >>>Did you know that if I flip a perfectly fair coin 100 times, the probability of >>>100 tails in a row is exactly the same as the other 2^101 -1 possible outcomes? >> >>No , I really didn't know that :-) > >Yes. It is exactly 1/(2^101-1). > >>Are you sure you chose the right model when doing your calculations ? > >Positive. > >> >>Sure some certain outcome like 99 tails and the other one ( I don't remember the >>name of at the moment ) arriving at 43rd throw are equal to 100 tails but this >>is not exactly the question here , is it ? > >It's exactly the same, only completely different. > >>pete ( the remembering his maths studies sometimes .. ) The chance of throwing 100 heads in a row ( or in fact any unique sequence) is = (1/2)**100. However, perhaps we should be examining not the sequence, but the final tallies. i.e. 43 tails, 57 heads, irreseptive of sequence. To do this we use the binomial distribution, which calculates expected values, for 101 states starting from 0 heads, 100 tails to 100 heads,0tails. I mean the sequences don't matter,,,,the tallied up states do. I have no idea what I just said.
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