Author: Dann Corbit
Date: 17:12:36 07/15/00
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On July 15, 2000 at 19:58:38, ShaktiFire wrote: [snip] >The chance of throwing 100 heads in a row ( or in fact any unique sequence) >is = (1/2)**100. However, perhaps we should be examining not the sequence, >but the final tallies. i.e. 43 tails, 57 heads, irreseptive of sequence. > >To do this we use the binomial distribution, which calculates expected >values, for 101 states starting from 0 heads, 100 tails to 100 heads,0tails. > >I mean the sequences don't matter,,,,the tallied up states do. > >I have no idea what I just said. Actually, I think you are pretty smart, and you make a compelling argument. However, when you have only a very small number of experimental trials, and each experiemnt is carried out with different equipment, rules, and conditions and then you use that to form a judgement, couldn't it be that you got a few improbable sequences to start with? Chess players may find problems if they get to play the program one hundred times or more. They may exploit the weakness. Again, I don't know that this will happen. Only that it is possible, maybe even probable. If Kasparov had one thousand practice games against Deep Blue, do you think he would have done better or worse or the same?
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